Monday, March 23, 2009

OOTP's Best Shopping Is in Seattle

Despite the four titles in five years, the front office of the Seattle Monarchs has decided it's time to shake things up a bit. So, depending on the response, one or both of the following players will be traded this offseason. These are two of the very top talents in the game.

Starting Pitcher Chad Nelligan

I find myself with six starting pitchers who need to be starting in the majors next season. For a variety of reasons, the one I'm most likely to trade is Chad Nelligan. Let's get the small downside out of the way early. He's 34 years old. He was injured for part of the 2013 season. He makes $13.3 million per year.

Now, for the upside. He has a career ERA of 2.49 and a record of 186-75. Until last season, he had thrown over 230 innings in nine consecutive seasons. In September and October, he was 5-1 witn an ERA under 2.00. He threw 13 shutout innings in two starts in the Cecil Cup against New York (and gets my MVP vote for the series). He's only got two more years on his contract, so you're not getting his declining years. He's a 5* player and the game currently ranks him as the fourth best starter overall. (Good luck getting the three ahead of him.)

Basically, he's awesome and he's available. When I got him in a trade in 2009, I gave up a 5* starting pitching prospect, two 3* outfield prospects, and another middling starting pitching prospect. I considered it a bargain then and now, four champioships later, still do. Obviously, he's worth less now, but he's a true #1 starter in a league with precious few of them.

Outfielder Sean Arant

Once again, due to an embarassment of riches, I find myself with four All-Star quality outfielders. While I'm not excited about it, I think Arant is the person to trade. Again, let's eliminate the downside quickly. He's 33. He makes $12.6 million. He's currently a little banged up, although he played 155 games this year before getting injured in a meaningless game.

Upside? He's also awesome. He's stolen more than 70 bases in each of the last four years with a good success rate and will become the all-time stolen base leader sometime next season. He has a career OPS of .862 and a career split line of .317/.400/.462. With his on base percentage and his stolen bases, he's the perfect leadoff hitter. He can play both centerfield and rightfield, although he's better in right according to my scout. I also picked him up in a 2009 trade, sparking my run of titles. He's a 4.5* player and ranked 20th in the game in the most recent OSA list.

Arant has won six championships (two with Florida and four with Seattle), making him the winningest player of all time. He's done a lot of good work to earn that distinction too, with a career .810 OPS in the postseason. His contract also only goes through the 2015 season, so again, you don't have the risk of a decline.

Why trade these guys? Well, both suffer from position crunches where I have more good players than spots. Also, while I could keep both and keep my team completely intact for another run next season, I could use the financial flexibility that would come with trading one or both of them.

In return, I'm looking primarily for draft picks or prospects. I'm perfectly happy with prospects in the low minors, as I don't have a pressing major league need for them.

If I trade Arant, I could also use a fourth outfielder who can play all three positions and serve as a pinch hitting threat off the bench. A good backup infielder, preferably good with the glove, would also help. (Basically, I need back people like Lorenzen and Machen who I traded to Hickory.)

Even with Nelligan injured for a significant part of the season, these two guys combined for 90 VORP in 2013. That's nine wins worth of action right there. If Nelligan's healthy all year, that would be an additional 10-12 wins in the standings from those two guys. That's a big boost to playoff chances, and one that comes with no long-term commitment and risk. So, drop me a line at the usual email address.

P.S. If someone wants to make me a good offer for one of my infielders (Gerhardt, Deleon, Alustiza, Bivens), I'd listen to that too, although I'm not as interested in trading one of them. But, I do have a spare there too, so someone may be interested in that upgrade as well.

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