Tuesday, August 23, 2011

SDMB OOTP Draft History

I have completed my project to obtain VORP data on all of the drafted players to appear in the major leagues and/or in a top 100 prospects report. The data is complete through the end of the 2018 season. I am just starting the analysis. for instance, I'm curious as to how value correlates with draft position, how teams have done in the draft, etc. But, I wanted to throw this out there and let people know that they can drop questions in the comments or send me an email.

For starters, here are the #1 overall picks through the years.

2003: Monck's Corner picked Matthew Cassity. Appeared in majors 2010-11, +3.0 VORP (1.5/year).

2004: Ohio picked Sabas Delvalle. 2007-16, +312.5 VORP (31.3/yr).

2005: Maui picked David Alcala. 2009-17, +77.7 (8.6/yr).

2006: Hickory picked Dong Lutz. 2006-2018, +730.5 (56.2/yr).

2007: Ohio picked James Hardman. 2009-18, +144.7 (14.5/yr).

2008: Houston picked Hal Pires. 2009-18, +319.2 (31.9/yr).

2009: Cleveland picked Mohammed Stelly. 2011-17, +157.3 (22.5/yr)

2010: Seattle picked George Labarre. 2012-18, +123.3 (17.6/yr)

2011: Cleveland picked John Grondin. 2013-18. +337.2 (56.2/yr)

2012: Maui picked Imatarou Natsu. 2012-18, +52.8 (7.5/yr)

2013: Maui picked Jason Lefebvre. 2014-18, +132.2 (26.4/yr)

2014: Maui picked Francisco Perez. 2017-18, +0.1 (0.1/yr)

2015: Seattle picked Manuel Cardona. Currently in AAA.

2016: Hickory picked Jesus Flores. Earned +11.9 VORP in 2018.

2017: Houston picked Jose Contreras. Released in 2018, currently on Maui's AA team.

2018: Seattle picked Lucio Muniz. Currently in A-ball, being promoted to AA.

On balance, the #1 picks have accumulated 2402.6 VORP over 88 major league seasons, an average of 27.3/year. Interestingly, the #2 overall picks have been slightly better (2772.6 VORP over 94 ML seasons, 29.5/year) and the #3 picks have a higher average per major league season (2223.0 over 70 ML seasons, 31.8/year).

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