Friday, September 30, 2011

Updated Career VORP Leaderboard

With the numbers from the recently completed 2019 season plugged in, here is the current list of all-time most valuable players, as determined by VORP.

1. RF Brian Frison, 867.3 VORP
2. SP Demarcus Ramirez, 831.2 VORP
3. SS John Hukill, 807.8 VORP
4. 1B Dong Lutz, 764.5 VORP
5. SP Ronald Placencia, 760.4 VORP
6. SP Chad Nelligan, 760.2 VORP
7. SS Ricky Peppers, 751.5 VORP
8. SP John Okane, 724.1 VORP
9. SP Christopher Hester, 682.9 VORP
10. SP Juan Villatoro, 662.3 VORP
11. RF Christopher Moss, 661.7 VORP

I included Moss on the list because he's much closer to Villatoro than what I would consider to be the range of error in measuring and calculating VORP.

More posts to come during the playoffs and offseason, now that I have the 2019 numbers plugged in.

Wednesday, September 28, 2011

Maui Takes 2-0 Lead, Hickory and Seattle Tied at 1

The Maui Mashers continued their dominance over Saskatoon with a 7-1 victory in the Aloha State.  The heroes of the game for Maui were 3B Bruce Parker, who was 3-for-4 with a home run, two runs scored and three RBI, and starter Anibal Ottoman who pitched a five-hit complete game.

Over in the Pacific northwest, Hickory managed to hold off the Seattle Monarchs and take a 3-2 victory.  The Huskers lead 3-0 after the top of the third.  Seattle tried to make their way back but were unable to do so, despite a two run home run by Richard Bender in the eighth.

Game 3 will be simmed on Saturday night.

Monday, September 26, 2011

Regular Season Is Done

Game Date: September 23, 2019

Who Uploaded?:
Monck's Corner

Final League Leaders:
Batting Average:  Ricky Peppers, Shackamaxon .357
OBP:  Callum Ganyon, Ohio .461
Slugging:  Ricky Peppers, .642
OPS:  Ricky Peppers, 1.045
VORP:  Ricky Peppers, 105.2
Hits:  Ricky Peppers, 232
Doubles:  Raul Ortega, Ohio, 54
Triples:  Timothy Mendiola, Saskatoon and Luis Ramon, Saskatoon, 11
Home Runs:  David Seibel, Hickory, 51
RBI:  Raul Ortega, 145
Runs Scored:  David Seibel, 141
Stolen Bases:  Guillaume Fournier, Monck's Corner, 64
Walks:  Sherman Evanoff, Shackamaxon, 127

Earned Run Average:  Enrico Hernandez, Seattle 190
Wins:  Ronald Placencia, Seattle and Thomas Cohen, Saskatoon, 22
Saves:  Bill Dewall, Ohio, 37
Shutouts, Enrico Hernandez and Thomas Cohen, 3
VORP:  Allen Reuter, Brooklyn, 79.0
H/9 IP:  Enrico Hernandez, 6.34
HR/9 IP: Kyle Fike, Maui 0.12
BB/ 9 IP:  Thomas Cohen, 0.98
Strikeouts:  Donald Hunnicutt, Hickory, 249
K/9 IP:  Donald Hunnicutt, 10.08

Cleveland's Ronald Quijada hit his 300th home run (17th)

Playoff Schedule:
1st round:  Saskatoon vs. Maui, Hickory vs. Seattle
Game 1:  Monday night, Sep 26
Game 2:  Tuesday night, Sep 27
Game 3:  Saturday night, Oct 1
Game 4:  Monday night, Oct 3
Game 5:  Tuesday night, Oct 4
Game 6:  Wednesday night, Oct 5
Game 7:  Thursday night, Oct 6

Wednesday, September 21, 2011

September II Sim Done

Game Date:  9/16/2019

Who Uploaded?:
Monck's Corner

Adams:  Hickory wins the division.
Zotti:  Seattle wins the division
Signorino:  Maui wrapped this one up loooong ago.
Wild Card:  Saskatoon leads Ohio by six, with six to play.  Magic number = 1

Awards & Accomplishments:
CF Raul Ortega, of Ohio, wins Player of the Week (9/2)
Saskatoon CF Rufus Murray named Player of the Week (9/9)
Saskatoon's Santigao Salazar hits for the cycle against Shackamaxon (9/15)

Saskatoon CF Rufus Murray named Player of the Week (9/16) for the second week in a row.

Significant Injuries:
Monck's Corner's Guillame Fournier hyperextended his elbow, ending his season.
Ohio's Callum Ganyon fractured his knee and won't be able to play until next March.

Hickory's Paul Shunk recorded his 2000th hit, becoming the 10th player to reach that goal.
Brooklyn's Miguel Cuesta blasted his 400th home run, becoming the ninth player to reach that goal.

Miscellaneous Statistical Note:
Players who have 2000 hits AND 400 home runs:  Christopher Moss, Dong Lutz, Ricky Peppers, Gregory Mudge, Brian Frison, Miguel Cuesta.

Next Sim:  The rest of the regular season will be run next *Sunday* night, September 25

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

2002: Who Should Have Won MVP and Cy Young?

One thing I thought might be interesting is to look back at the prior years and see how well the game has done in handing out the big awards. So, let's go back to 2002. Unfortunately, due to the limitations described in other posts, there's some missing information about that year, but here is what I do know about our inaugural season.

Houston won the Adams Division with a 92-70 record, 12 games clear of Seattle. Stockholm claimed the Zotti at 91-71, five games ahead of Kingston. Houston won the first Cecil Cup four games to 1.

Who won the awards? In the Adams League, the winners were Houston leftfielder Shaun Guinn (.322, 35 home runs, 123 RBI) and Saskatoon's Wendell Sorg (15-9, 2.98 ERA, 211.1 innings). In the Zotti League, first baseman Frank Nunn of California (now Danville) took home the MVP award with a .334 batting average, 46 home runs, and 111 RBI. Troy Nelson of Stockholm (now Shackamaxon) was the Cy Young, going 17-6 with a 2.57 ERA over 241.2 innings.

Who should have won? Well, judging by VORP, the game got the pitching awards right for sure. Nelson's season was good for 80.7 runs saved above replacements, more than 20 runs (or two full wins) better than any other pitcher. He was dominant.

Sorg also was the best pitcher in the Adams with a 60.1 VORP, just ahead of Seattle's Steven Jurgens (55.5 VORP, 13-10 record with 3.43 ERA in 241.1 innings). Others are clustered behind, but Sorg was the right choice.

The Zotti MVP may have, but may not have, went to the right person. Nunn led the league in VORP at 83.7. The next closest though was Kingston (now Ohio) rightfielder Patrick Welch. A good corner defender, Welch had a 72.4 VORP while hitting .366 with 10 home runs and 81 RBI. Welch had a higher OBP (.427 vs. .402 for Dunn) and excellent speed (15 triples, 41 SBs). While VORP includes the effects of the speed and greater OBP, it doesn't include defense. If someone wants to argue that a good defensive rightfielder makes up 11 runs on a first baseman and really should be the MVP, I wouldn't fight them very much.

(After Welch, the next highest VORP for position players in the Zotti League was Kingston shortstop Emmanual Fernandez at 50.2, so it's really between Nunn and Welch.)

Undeniably though, the game got the Adams MVP wrong. Despite his power numbers, Guinn managed just a .369 OBP and a .913 OPS. The best player in the Adams League, and likely the best in the entire league, was Juan Melton. The Houston infielder hit .337 with 28 home runs and 108 RBI. But, he also had a .400 OBP and a .952 OPS. Melton’s 77.4 VORP dwarfs Guinn’s 57.5. In fact, considering Melton probably played either shortstop or second base, he likely was more valuable than either Nunn or Welch as well. Melton never won an MVP award, but by my count (as we’ll discuss in future installments) he should have gotten a couple of them. Maybe we can make it up to him at some point with a Hall of Fame induction.

(Guinn wasn’t even second in VORP, as he was also behind Brooklyn’s outfielder Robert Casarez. We’ll talk about Casarez in later years.)

Anyone else have any thoughts or memories of the 2002 season? Michael and Will, as you had the two best teams, I’d be especially interested in anything you can recall.

Sunday, September 18, 2011

August II Sim Done

Game Date:  September 1, 2019

Who Uploaded?:
Monck's Corner
New York

Adams:  Hickory leads Monck's Corner by six.
Zotti:  Seattle's lead over Saskatoon is now at sixteen games
Signorino:  Maui's lead is 28 games
Wild Card:  Saskatoon over Ohio by five.

Awards & Accomplishments:
Hickory 3B Jorge Velazquez named Player of the Week (8/19)
Shackamaxon SS Ricky Peppers named Player of the Week (8/26)
Ricky Peppers named Player of the Month for the second time this season.
Seattle's Ronald Placencia named Pitcher of the Month for the eighth time since 2013.
Hickory 1B Jesus Flores named Rookie of the Month for the second month in a row

Significant Injuries:
Brooklyn SP Aaron Taub will miss four weeks with a strained back muscle
Hickory CF Tim Combs ruptured his medial collateral ligament and may miss the start of the 2020 season.
Danville 3B Michael Rector herniated a disc in his back and is questionable for the start of the 2020 season.

Seattle's Ronald Placencia recorded his 200th victory, making him the sixth pitcher to reach that goal.

Next sim:
Wednesday night, September 21

Thursday, September 15, 2011

All-Time All-Star Team

So, now that's I've compiled this absurdly large pool of data, now including the inaugural draft and the players created in 2003 and 2004, who is the ultimate All-Star team as measured by career VORP through 2018? Without further ado:

C: Herman Gossard (2006 draft, round 1, pick 5 by Houston) 408.9 VORP
1B: Dong Lutz (2006 draft, round 1, pick 1 by Hickory) 730.5 VORP
2B: Timothy Palacio (inaugural draft, round 13, pick 113 by Ohio) 561.3 VORP
3B: Eugene Alustiza (2008 draft, round 1, pick 2 by Danville) 420.2 VORP
SS: John Hukill (2005 draft, round 1, pick 8 by Danville) 747.9 VORP
LF: Roberto Casarez (inaugural draft, round 1, pick 6 by Brooklyn) 513.2 VORP
CF: Michael Fay (inaugural draft, round 2, pick 12 by Saskatoon) 527.8 VORP
RF: Brian Frison (2004 draft, round 1, pick 2 by Saskatoon) 816.9 VORP
SP: Demarcus Ramirez (inaugural draft, round 28, pick 220 by Saskatoon) 831.2 VORP
RP: Junior Cuomo (2003 draft, round 1, pick 7 by Shackamaxon) 335.9 VORP

Again, this is based on the players' positions at the time drafted/created.

Centerfield was VERY close, as Sean Arant had 524.7 VORP, only three runs fewer. As stated before, Arant was someone created when we filled out the AAA rosters in 2003 and went to Michael. Given the vagaries of VORP and my calculations, I'd call them tied for best CF of all-time.

Relief pitcher was even closer, as Timothy Vallejo (2003 draft, round 5, pick 37 by Seattle) is at 335.5 VORP, just 0.4 runs saved behind Cuomo. Again, given the vagaries of the VORP figures we're working with, I'd say they were tied. But, since Cuomo appears certain to pull away as the game goes on, it's not a particularly big deal.

Is anyone likely to break into these ranks in the next few years?

Well, Beau Manning was only 14 runs behind Gossard to start the year, but Gossard is widening the gap this year. No one else is close at catcher.

No one is particularly close at 1B, 2B, LF, CF, RF, or RP.

Grondin seems likely to be the top third baseman ever, probably by the end of 2021, but he doesn't play 3B at all anymore, so that's a little odd.

I guess Peppers could run down Hukill, but he started 2019 more than 100 runs behind.

As far as starters, it's possible that Placencia, Okane, and/or Hester could catch Ramirez. But, they entered 2018 135 runs, 156 runs, and 200 runs behind respectively. Villatoro is another candidate, especially as he's only 31. It's kind of a golden age for great pitchers right now.

Sim Delayed Until Saturday Night

One of the owners has a corrupt file and can't get into the game.  I'm going to upload a new game file to the server for him and delay the sim until Saturday night so that he can make his changes.


Tuesday, September 13, 2011

The Inaugural Draft

So, the inaugural draft of the SDMB OOTP league was held on Zev's computer on December 15, 2002--almost 18 OOTP seasons ago and nine years ago in the real world. Being the curious sort that I am, I wanted to know who got the most value from the draft. I won't bore anyone with the details of how I got the data. Let's just say it wasn't easy.

But there is one problem with going back to the beginning worth mentioning. I don't have an almanac for the first year, 2002. So, it's difficult to find out what players did that year. If they were still in the game in 2007, I have player pages that have all of their stats going back to 2002. But, there are no player pages for 2002-06. So, if a player left the game before 2007, there's no way to get their 2002 stats. I don't have any team pages for that year because there's no almanac. I don't have any player pages because they left the league before the first set in 2007. In short, I'm stuck. Luckily, it's only 25 players that have this problem, and then only for 2002. (Well, there are three player-seasons after 2003 where I lack data, but those are special cases and really don't change the big picture very much.)

And, where I have been able to reconstruct 2002 player data, I don't have 2002 team or league data. That means it's hard to calculate 2002 VORP figures, because I don't have the league environment to compare it to. In the end, I just used the league figures from 2003 to form the environment, ran the calculations for the 2002 player-seasons, and called it a day.

Without further ado, here is the information for that first 50-round draft. This draft was all done by the computer, so I guess we can't kick ourselves for missing any players. In descending order of overall value:

1. Saskatoon: Picked 4th. 4,759 VORP over 278 seasons (17.1 average). Best player was Demarcus Ramirez (831.2 VORP over 15 seasons). Top season: Ramirez, 2009 (99.7 VORP).

2. Ohio (then Kingston): Picked 1st. 4,241.4 VORP over 238 seasons (17.8 average). Best player was Christopher Moss (610.9 VORP over 13 seasons, still playing). Top season: Timothy Palacio, 2011 (90.5 VORP).

3. Houston: Picked 3rd. 4,207.9 VORP over 291 seasons (14.5 average). Best player was Juan Melton (443.6 VORP over 8 years). Top season: Melton, 2006 (99.0 VORP).

4. Seattle: Picked 7th. 3,997.7 VORP over 262 seasons (15.3 average). Best player was Gregory Mudge (601.7 VORP over 14 seasons). Top season: Mudge, 2010 (94.2 VORP).

5. Monck's Corner (Virginia): Picked 8th. 3,869.1 VORP over 276 seasons (14.0 average). Best player was John Okane (675.7 VORP over 16 years, still playing). Top season: John Redman, 2009 (91.1 VORP).

6. Danville (California): Picked 2nd. 3,232.5 VORP over 270 seasons (12.0 average). Best player was David Kerry (503.3 VORP over 13 seasons, still playing). Top season: Frank Nunn 2004 (109.8 VORP).

7. Shackamaxon (Stockholm): Picked 5th. 2,756.5 VORP over 266 seasons (10.4 average). Best player was Troy Nelson (357.0 VORP over 9 seasons). Top season: Nelson, 2002 (80.7 VORP).

8. Brooklyn: Picked 6th. 2,560.4 VORP over 254 seasons (10.1 average). Best player was Robert Casarez (513.2 VORP over 8 years). Top season: Casarez 2004 (133.9 VORP).

Some other notes.

As you would probably expect, the players picked by 2002-03 champion Houston had the most combined value in 2002 and 2003.

Monck's Corner got two of the four most valuable players in Okane (6th round) and Albert Garcia (2nd round).

The first round pick with the highest career value was Richard Pimental, 4th overall, by Saskatoon.

The third most valuable player, Christopher Moss, was picked in the 42nd round by Ohio.

Troy Nelson, Shackamaxon's best pick, is only #28 overall. Michael did not do well in the draft, which makes his run of titles all the more impressive. (On the other hand, he did get Sean Arant when we filled the AAA rosters with created players in 2003, so he shouldn't sprain anything patting himself on the back.)

Thursday, September 8, 2011

I'm Not Dead Yet!

As I continue to troll through league history (amazing how much of the past I'd forgotten), I have discovered that we are down to our last few players from the inaugural draft. Here are the people still active, by my count:

Richard Bilbrey (47th round, Ohio)
Robert Camarena (44th round, Danville)
Marvin Cardoza (44th round, Monck's Corner)
David Kerry (23rd round, Danville)
Dennis Martinez (34th round, Saskatoon)
Christopher Moss (42nd round, Ohio)
John Okane (6th round, Monck's Corner)
Hector Orozco (35th round, Monck's Corner)
Timothy Palacio (15th round, Ohio)
Tyler Thomas (44th round, Saskatoon)

Also, still available in the free agency pool are Franklin Lakey (34th round, Shackamaxon) and Gregory Mudge (19th round, Seattle).

So, who do you think will be the last one standing from this group?

Wednesday, September 7, 2011

August I Sim Done

Game Date:  August 16, 2019

Who Uploaded?:
Monck's Corner

Adams:  Hickory leads Monck's Corner by six.
Zotti:  Seattle's lead over Saskatoon expands to fourteen games.
Signorino:  Maui's up by two dozen games.
Wild Card:  Saskatoon leads Ohio by five games.

Awards and Accomplishments:
Hickory's Paul Shunk named Batter of the Month
Maui's Kyle Fike named Pitcher of the Month
Hickory's Jesus Flores named Rookie of the Month
Hickory's George LaBarre named Player of the Week (8/5)
Seattle's Enrico Hernandez pitches a no-hitter against Brooklyn.
Monck's Corner's Kenneth Lea named Player of the Week (8/12)

Significant Injuries:
Houston's Felipe Valverde fractured his eye socket and will miss the rest of the season.
Seattle MR Joshua Stoker will miss about two months with a strainer rotator cuff.
Maui's Kevin Jackson herniated his disk.  He will miss the rest of the season and is questionable for the start of 2020.
Maui's Enrico Hernandez strained his elbow and will miss the rest of the season.

Timothy Palacio reaches 2000 hits, becoming the ninth player to reach that plateau.

Next sim:
*Thursday* night, September 15

New Leader in the Clubhouse!

As I continue to compile VORP for the players in the league's history, we have a new leader for all-time most valuable player:

Demarcus Ramirez

When Demarcus Ramirez retired at the end of the 2018 season, he had accumulated 831.2 runs of VORP, or 83 wins. That places Mr. Ramirez ahead of his former teammate Brian Frison, who had 816.9 VORP through the end of the 2018 season. (We'll all ignore the fact that Frison has moved ahead since then by accumulating 33.9 VORP this year.)

I haven't finished figuring out all of the original players' VORP, but I'll be surprised if someone tops Demarcus.

P.S. I might be even more impressed that Ramirez spent his entire career with Saskatoon. That's a lot of time on the prairie.

P.P.S. Ramirez might be the ultimate example of a player going out on top, as he was 19-7 with a 2.76 ERA over 264.1 innings and won the championship in his final season at age 38. Nicely done.

Monday, September 5, 2011

Piggy Post


C - Brian Walker C 24yrs 4 Potential Stars Minors
C - Roberto Perez C 24yrs 3 Potential Stars Minors


Foot odor.

In return I would like pitching and/or draft picks that do not have foot odor.

That is all.

Thursday, September 1, 2011

Seattle Trades Utility Infielder for Worthless Lottery Ticket

July 30, 2019 (SEATTLE): Seattle Owner/GM Mack Shultz announced today the fourth trade of the month for the Monarchs, this one fairly minor. Utility infielder/outfielder and pending free agent Roberto Ferrer has been dealt to Monck's Corner in exchange for a 2020 sixth-round pick.

"Yeah, a sixth round pick isn't worth very much. Our exhaustive draft research has taught us that," said Shultz. "But we've got other guys ready to fill in the major league roster and Robbie didn't seem all that interested in returning to Seattle next year. Hopefully, he plays well for the Monks and boosts their chances at overtaking Hickory."

Ferrer was reportedly excited at the opportunity and vowed to "stick it to" the Monarchs the next time they played, which will be August 22-24.

July II Sim Done -- Trading Deadline

Game Date:  July 30, 2019

Who Uploaded?

Adams:  Hickory leads Monck's Corner by five games.
Zotti:  Seattle's lead over Saskatoon is up to a dozen games
Signorino:  Maui leads the division by a score
Wild Card:  Saskatoon leads by six over Shackamaxon

Awards and Accomplishments:
July 19, 2019 was truly a remarkable day as three players all went 5-5 that day.  The three players were Maui's Octavio Callabres, Danville's Abe Shivley (who also hit for the cycle that day) and New York's Lonnie Machen.
Ohio SS Collum Ganyon was named Player of the Week (7/22)
Seattle C Alberto Granado was named Player of the Week (7/29)

Significant Injuries:
Seattle RF Anson Shearing will miss 3-4 weeks with a strained elbow ligament

Seattle's Christopher Hester recorded his 200th career victory, making him the fifth pitcher to reach that milestone.

Next sim:  Next Wednesday night, September 7.  That sim will be the last chance to conduct trades.