Tuesday, September 20, 2011

2002: Who Should Have Won MVP and Cy Young?

One thing I thought might be interesting is to look back at the prior years and see how well the game has done in handing out the big awards. So, let's go back to 2002. Unfortunately, due to the limitations described in other posts, there's some missing information about that year, but here is what I do know about our inaugural season.

Houston won the Adams Division with a 92-70 record, 12 games clear of Seattle. Stockholm claimed the Zotti at 91-71, five games ahead of Kingston. Houston won the first Cecil Cup four games to 1.

Who won the awards? In the Adams League, the winners were Houston leftfielder Shaun Guinn (.322, 35 home runs, 123 RBI) and Saskatoon's Wendell Sorg (15-9, 2.98 ERA, 211.1 innings). In the Zotti League, first baseman Frank Nunn of California (now Danville) took home the MVP award with a .334 batting average, 46 home runs, and 111 RBI. Troy Nelson of Stockholm (now Shackamaxon) was the Cy Young, going 17-6 with a 2.57 ERA over 241.2 innings.

Who should have won? Well, judging by VORP, the game got the pitching awards right for sure. Nelson's season was good for 80.7 runs saved above replacements, more than 20 runs (or two full wins) better than any other pitcher. He was dominant.

Sorg also was the best pitcher in the Adams with a 60.1 VORP, just ahead of Seattle's Steven Jurgens (55.5 VORP, 13-10 record with 3.43 ERA in 241.1 innings). Others are clustered behind, but Sorg was the right choice.

The Zotti MVP may have, but may not have, went to the right person. Nunn led the league in VORP at 83.7. The next closest though was Kingston (now Ohio) rightfielder Patrick Welch. A good corner defender, Welch had a 72.4 VORP while hitting .366 with 10 home runs and 81 RBI. Welch had a higher OBP (.427 vs. .402 for Dunn) and excellent speed (15 triples, 41 SBs). While VORP includes the effects of the speed and greater OBP, it doesn't include defense. If someone wants to argue that a good defensive rightfielder makes up 11 runs on a first baseman and really should be the MVP, I wouldn't fight them very much.

(After Welch, the next highest VORP for position players in the Zotti League was Kingston shortstop Emmanual Fernandez at 50.2, so it's really between Nunn and Welch.)

Undeniably though, the game got the Adams MVP wrong. Despite his power numbers, Guinn managed just a .369 OBP and a .913 OPS. The best player in the Adams League, and likely the best in the entire league, was Juan Melton. The Houston infielder hit .337 with 28 home runs and 108 RBI. But, he also had a .400 OBP and a .952 OPS. Melton’s 77.4 VORP dwarfs Guinn’s 57.5. In fact, considering Melton probably played either shortstop or second base, he likely was more valuable than either Nunn or Welch as well. Melton never won an MVP award, but by my count (as we’ll discuss in future installments) he should have gotten a couple of them. Maybe we can make it up to him at some point with a Hall of Fame induction.

(Guinn wasn’t even second in VORP, as he was also behind Brooklyn’s outfielder Robert Casarez. We’ll talk about Casarez in later years.)

Anyone else have any thoughts or memories of the 2002 season? Michael and Will, as you had the two best teams, I’d be especially interested in anything you can recall.

1 comment:

  1. Well, off the top of my head, I remember lucking into the Stockholm franchise. I was one of the last two owners to join the original eight, and I had my choice between Alaska (which became Stockholm, then Florida, South Bay, Los Angeles, and finally (?) Shackamaxon) and one other team that might have been the California/Danville franchise. And, as I was learning the game, my team was rather dominant and won five out of the first six pennants.

    Anyway, the 2002 season. Joseph Denn entered the league as a 36-year old Jim Thome-type, mashing a ton of HRs and not winning the Outstanding Hitter despite, I think, leading the ZL in HR and RBI. Troy Nelson entered the league in his prime and was dominant for quite a few seasons. He really should be in the Hall of Fame, but that's another discussion for another thread.

    Somewhere, I think I have the holy grail you're looking for, Mack: The league file, or at least an old enough archive to help you with the 2002 season. It might be on a hard drive in storage or buried on line somewhere. I'll look for it.

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