Monday, June 17, 2013

Starting Pitcher For Sale

I've flipped back and forth a million times this off-season on what to do with my pitching staff. I tried to trade for starters and then ended up spending a lot of cash to sign Fiala and convert him.

In the end, completely opposite to what I've already done, I think I should deal one of my pitchers. I've got six good starting pitchers, and it's dumb to keep one around just in case of injury. So, on the market is one Juan Morrales. Here's a rundown of his pluses and minuses:

Pluses:

His performance on the field:

2018: 10-4, 3.89 ERA as a rookie
2019: 19-7, 3.40 ERA
2020: 22-6, 2.84 ERA
2021: 19-7, 2.84 ERA
2022: 16-6, 3.44 ERA

If you prefer WAR, he's 22.6 wins above replacement in his five-year career in the major leagues. That's probably why the OSA ranks him the #14 pitcher in the league.

His contract. $3M this year, $3M next year. I'd probably even be willing to throw in some cash into a deal, if that matters.

Minuses:

His OSA ratings aren't very good. My scout doesn't love him either. Morrales' ratings weren't very good last year, and they're worse now. He might be declining. But, I thought as much last year, even removing him from the rotation at times. Turned out, he was great again. Finished 5th in ERA, 5th in wins, 10th in innings pitched, 8th in K's per BB, 3rd in WHIP, etc.
Maybe he's declining and won't be good any more. But maybe he's one of those guys who pitches well despite low ratings. I don't really know.

Rather than have him pine away riding the pine, I'd like to deal Morrales to a worthy home. If you're interested, email me an offer. I'm a motivated seller.

P.S. I made a commitment to James Turner ($10M over the next two years), and I'm planning to use him as my #5 starter. He also has the same sin as Morrales (low ratings) and I figured his bigger contract, higher ERA last year, and greater age (34) would make him less attractive to others. But if you prefer Turner to Morrales, and want to make an offer on him, that's ok with me too.

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