Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Sim's Done

Game Date:  1/15/2024

Atlanta signed MR Arnold Pough (London) to a 2 yr/$1.3m contract.

Next sim:  Thursday night

Seattle and Shackamaxon trade

Seattle GM Mack Shultz has had a quiet offseason, with just a trade and a minor league free agent signing under his belt. Rival owner Michael Weintraub of Shackamaxon has been comparably busy, signing several free agents, including superstar John Hukill away from Seattle. Still, the two owners have found the time for their annual offseason trade.

Seattle sends MR Luis Gonzales to Shackamaxon in return for AAA SS Alberto Andres and a 4th round pick in the 2025 draft.

Shultz estimates that this was the 29th trade the two owners have completed in 24 SDMB league seasons. And, surely, this won't be the largest between the two, or the last.

Monday, December 30, 2013

Sim's Done

Game Date: 1/8/2013

Atlanta:  MR John Kautz (Shackamaxon), 4 yrs/$49.5
Atlanta:  All time home run leader, 1B Luis Jeon (New York), 2 yrs/$20m
Hickory:  SP Danny Andrews (Atlanta), 1yr/$850k
Seattle:  RF Carlos Ruiz (no prev team), minor league contract
Houston: 3B Daniel Burdine (Ohio), 2 yrs/$4.5m
Maui:  2B Ronald Quijada (Antelope Valley), 2 yrs/$19m

Next sim:  Tuesday night

Sunday, December 29, 2013

Hall of Fame Standards - Pitchers

The recent retirement of John Okane (and the fact that he missed automatic enshrinement by 0.01 ERA) got me to thinking about how our players stack up as Hall of Famers.  I decided to look at all of our retired pitchers (limited to those with 10+ seasons in the majors) and see how they stack up.

As a metric, I used Bill James's Hall of Fame Standards.  The formula is as follows:

1 point for every:
  • 10 W over 100, limit 25
  • 20 games over .500, limit 10
  • .013 WPct over .500, limit 15 (min 500 IP)
  • .20 ERA under 4.00, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
  • 200K over 1000, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
  • .3 BB/9IP under 4.00, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
  • .3 H/9IP under 10.00, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
  • 1000 IP over 1000, limit 5
  • 100 CG over 200, limit 5
  • 30 SHO, limit 5

I made two small changes to this formula.  In our league, no one retired is even close to 200 CG (the record among retired players is 53) and no one has 30 SHO (the record is 27).

As such, I tweaked the last two conditions to:

  • 4 CG over 30, limit 5
  • 7 SHO, limit 5

The test is designed so that the average Hall of Famer should score a 50.  Of course that means that there will be legitimate Hall of Famers with scores above this and with scores below this.  How far away from 50 we want to stray on the negative side is something we can decide upon in times to come.

So, how did our pitchers do? 

There are 72 pitchers who have ten or more seasons in the major leagues.  When limited to starting pitchers (since the test really isn't designed to evaluate relievers), that leaves 38 pitchers. 

The range of HOFS runs from 72 all the way down to 2.  The average HOFS score for the 38 pitchers is 21.2 and the median is 17.

The dozen pitchers with scores over 25 are:

  • 72 Ronald Placencia  
  • 67 Demarcus Ramirez
  • 54 John Okane
  • 53 Chad Nelligan
  • 41 Albert Garcia
  • 39 Richard Pimental
  • 34 Bill Siple
  • 34 Thomas Cohen
  • 33 Wendell Sorg
  • 28 Isaac Diehl
  • 27 Sherman Wheeler
  • 26 Frank Osborne (who, amazingly, makes the top 12 in a heavily win-weighted list while being 50 games under .500 lifetime)

Ramirez and Nelligan are already enshrined.  It would seem, based on this test (whose validity we can debate) that Placencia and Okane should also be enshrined.

Now, what about the active pitchers?  Well, I took a look that the active starting pitchers with 10 major league seasons.  There are nineteen qualifying active pitchers.  Of those, Juan Villatoro is on top with a HOFS score of 75.  The complete list of starting pitchers on the active list with a score of 25 or better are:

  • 75 Villatoro
  • 68 Christopher Hester
  • 40 Fernando Estrada
  • 34 Joseph Macaluso
  • 32 Kyle Fyke

So, where does this leave us?  Let's talk standard deviations.  The standard deviation for all qualifying pitchers (active and retired) is 18.48 and the median of all qualifying pitchers is 18.

There is only one pitcher who is three standard deviations above the median -- Juan Villatoro who is at 3.08.  The rest of the pitchers who are at least one standard deviation above the median are:

  • 2.92  Placencia 
  • 2.70  Hester
  • 2.65 Ramirez
  • 1.95 Okane
  • 1.89 Nelligan
  • 1.24 Garcia
  • 1.19 Estrada
  • 1.14 Pimental

Lastly, who is at the bottom?  Well, considering the fact that all of these pitchers managed to stay in the league for 10 years, I can't say that any of them are failures.  However, limiting ourselves to the retired players (since the active ones can still improve themselves), the bottom pitcher is Pedro Marez, who has a lifetime record of 50-51.

 The full data set can be seen here. (Yellow highlights are arefor enshrined playes, blue highlights indicates an active player).

Sim's Done! Welcome to 2024!

The sim is done and the calendar has turned.  The game date is 1/1/2024.

With the passing of another year, we have the annual wave of retirements.  Some notable names to hang 'em up for good are:

  • P Marcus Santoro - 43-55, 5.15
  • P Pedro Ramos  - 1107G, 310 SV, 3.74 ERA
  • P John Okane - 277-170, 3.51, 3419K, 137 ERA+
  • P Robert Brown - 472G, 3.89 ERA

I believe (and Mack, please correct me if I'm wrong) that Okane was the last active player from our initial 50-round draft in 2002.  Based on the automatic enshirnement criteria of the game, Okane misses the Hall of Fame by just a smidgen (the ERA of 3.51 is just outside the criteria 3.50 or less). 


Shackamaxon signed P Bill Dewall (Brooklyn) to a 2 yr/ $5m contract.

Next sim:  Monday night.

Friday, December 27, 2013

Favorite Toy - Wins

The 2024 season will be the 23rd season of the SDMB OOTP league.  Up until now, no pitcher has accumulated 300 victories -- although one is very close and, barring collapse or injury, should break the 300 mark by mid-season.

Using my SQL and Excel skills (by day I'm a database developer), I went through all the active pitchers to see who has a chance to hit major milestones in pitching victories.

200 victories:
Three active pitchers (Juan Villatoro (289 wins), John Okane (277) and Christopher Hester (277)) have already passed the mark.

After that, only two active pitchers have a better than even shot of reaching 200:
  • Enrico Hernandez (29 years, 108 wins) 93%
  • Bruno Talamantez (27 y, 110 w) 87%

The rest of the players with a better than 10% shot
  • Fernando Estrada (39, 184) 45%
  • Teddy O'Herlihy (24, 42) 41%
  • Donald Hunnicutt (35, 155) 29%
  • Joseph Macaluso (35, 163) 23%
  • Jim Walton (25, 33) 17%
  • Dennis Durand (36, 144) 15%

Moving up to 250 victories, there are only four pitchers (aside from the three who have already passed it) that have a better than 0% shot:

  • Hernandez 29%
  • Talamantez 25%
  • O'Herlihy 12%
  • Walton 2%

Just in case the grouping of Hernandez, Talamantez and O'Herlihy sound familiar, it's because that's 60% of the Monarchs' rotation.

When pushed up to 300 victories the odds look like this:

  • Villatoro, 97% (the highest odds in the system)
  • Hester, 59%
  • Hernandez, 19%
  • Talamantez, 15%
  • O'Herlihy, 6%
  • Okane, 0%

Of course, we can even project further.  What are the odds any of those pitchers will reach 350 victories?

  • Villatoro, 41%
  • Hernandez, 5%
  • Talamantez, 1%

Hernandez has a miniscule shot (2%) at 360.

Villatoro's chances, when extended out, look like this:

  • 360 victories: 28%
  • 370 victories: 19%
  • 380 victories: 11%
  • 390 victories: 5%
  • 400 victories: 0%

Finally, the Favorite Toy tool predicts the career totals for pitchers.  For the pitchers we've discussed here, the projected final career totals are:

  • Villatoro: 345
  • Hester:  302
  • Okane: 280
  • Hernandez:  240
  • Talamentez: 234
  • Estrada: 199
  • Hunnicutt:  191
  • Macaluso: 190
  • O'Herlihy 186
  • Durand: 180

Of course, it should be kept in mind that the Favorite Toy is a tool that gives great weight to the previous season's totals.  So, if any of these players go into a slump (or get injured and miss significant time) or suddenly have great seasons, these numbers will change.

The FULL DATASET (with percentages for win totals starting at 125) can be found by clicking here.  
Is there some other form of data analysis you'd like to see done?  Let me know and I'll see if it's possible with the data I have.


Thursday, December 26, 2013

Sim's Done!

Game Date:  12/25/2023

Antelope Valley signed SP Sergio Mendoza (Hickory) to a 1 yr/$700k contract.
Atlanta signed P Jose Espinosa (no prev team) to a minor league contract.

Next sim:  Saturday night.

Antelope Valley - Seattle Swap Prospects

The Raptors shipped prized prospect 3B Sung Heun Hwa off to Seattle for OF prospect Dan Fisher and Single A RP Luis Quinones.  Hwa was drafted in the 1st round last year (#6 overall) and played at Springfield (A) for the Raptors organization.  Fisher was drafted in 2021 (2nd round, 23rd overall) by Seattle and played last year at Olympia (AA) demonstrating power, speed and defensive prowess.  When asked for comment, Raptor GM Sauerwald stated: "We wanted to get someone a little closer to being ML ready, and little better defensively with better base running ability.  Fisher has won the minor league Glove Wizard award twice, at two different levels and 2 different positions and has stolen over 80 bases in just over 2 ML seasons.  He'll slot into Debois (AAA) this year, where we'll work on his batting eye.  He should be ready to step into a ML role next year.  We think Quinones has a bright future ahead of him and will add some left handed pitching depth to our org".

The Raptors have had a busy off season, signing SP Clarence Craig, MRs Eden Torres and Sergio Mendoza,  AAA OFs Dustin Overgaag and Antonio Cabrera, Rule 5 OF Takayuki Inoue and waiver claim for AAA 2B Yee Qiu, while saying goodbye to longtime Raptors SPs Joseph Sterner and Alan Blessing.

Rumors swirl that the Raptors are still actively shopping veteran 3B Bruce Parker in an attempt to get younger across the infield.  The Raptors still need some bullpen help and prospects to shore up their depleted minor leagues.

Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Sim's Done

Game Date:  12/18/2023

Antelope Valley signed LF Antonio Cabrera (Houston) to a minor league deal.
Shackamaxon signed SP Jermaine Earp (Ohio) to a 2 yr/$7m contract.

Next sim:  Thursday evening

Sunday, December 22, 2013

Sim's Done, Kuhn, Ch'on Sign Extensions

Game Date: 12/11/2023

Antelope Valley signs MR Eden Torres (London) to a 1 yr/$640k  contract.
Shackamaxon signs 3B John "Sabertooth" Hukill to a 2 yr/ $46m contract.
Seattle signed 2B Norman Kuhn ( 7 yrs/$50m) and MR Bong-ok C'hon (5 yrs/$18m) to contract extensions.

Next sim:  Monday evening.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Chris Taylor was 14-9 not 17 my bad

Thursday, December 19, 2013

now that the rule draft is over i am set to make some deals...my main need is a top pitcher...i have available the following...Luis Santiago of major league ready premium talent....Victor Galvan starting pitcher  7-3 4.04 2022/7-8 7.28 2023 obviously off year...Chris Taylor 17-9 3.95 2022/8-9 4.34 2023 both years had good era but poor run support....Ignacio Lopez  right fielder well provide 20 hr and 270 average when healthy which he wasn't last year...Claudio Valentin left fielder 10 home runs in only 144 at bats.. well trade  some or all even in one package to get top flight starter email me if you have interest

Need a catcher?

My selection of Miguel Angel Ramirez in the Rule 5 draft not only gave me the #1 prospect in the game for the first time (I think), but a glut of young, major-league ready catching.

With that luxury in hand, and other needs on my team, I'm looking to deal George Robinson or Bobby Krieger.

Robinson is a 4-star prospect who excelled in both AAA and on my major league roster last season as a late-season call-up. He hits for average and doesn't strike out much. He figured to be my starting catcher before I acquired Ramirez, and would settle in as a platoon partner with him if I don't deal him.

Krieger is a player I've nurtured since I acquired him nearly eight seasons ago when he was a young prospect. Still only 26, he has the potential to start, but is a very capable backup and a good defensive backstop (35.2% RTO last year).

I suppose I could flip Ramirez in the right deal, but I'm looking to hang on to him. I'm hoping to get pitching and more pitching help in return.

Rule 5 Draft Results

Game Date:  12/4/2023

Draft Results:
Round 1:
Antelope Valley selects LF Takayuki Inoue from Atlanta
Shackamaxon selects C Angel Ramirez from New York
Brick selects SP Waldo Solleveld from Seattle
Maui selects RF Jae-chun Kim from Seattle

Round 2:
Brick selects MR Ron Shelton from Brooklyn.

Next Sim:  Saturday night

Sunday, December 15, 2013

Sim's Done - Rule 5 Draft Is Next

Game Date:  12/1/2023

Shackamaxon signed MR Jesus Garza (no previous team) to a $300k/1yr contract.
Brick signed P Felipe Velasquez (no previous team) to a minor league deal
Atlanta signed 2B Toshinobu Mizutani (Seattle) to a 2 yr/$1.75m contract
Shackamaxon signed RF Santiago Salazar (New York) for 1 yr/$900k
Shackamaxon signed MR Will Stout (Brick), 3 yr/$9m.
Antelope Valley signed LF Dustin Overgaag (Seattle) to a  3 yr/$1.5m contract.
Antelope Valley signed MR Clarence Craig (Maui), 4 yr/$42.5m
Maui signed CF Roberto Florez (no previous team) to a minor league contract.
Hickory signed 3B Angel Padilla (no previous team) to a minor league contract.

The Rule 5 Draft will be held on Tuesday evening (changed from previously announced schedule)


Antelope Valley Shopping Bruce Parker, #23 Prospect Sung Hwa

The Raptors are hoping to improve their outfield and are dangling 3B Bruce Parker and top 25 prospect Sung Heun Hwa.  Hwa was the AV's #1 pick last year, but I'm hoping to land someone a little closer to being ML ready.  I think Parker still has another good year or two in him, bashing 17 HRs in only 390 ABs last year, but I have some kids that I feel are ready and would like to see what they can do.  I would also consider dealing for a SP for the right offer.  I'm also willing to package draft picks or other prospects for a blockbuster deal.

Thursday, December 12, 2013


Mack correctly pointed out that the available draft pool isn't published until the game is simmed to the draft date. 

Therefore, on Saturday night, we'll sim to the draft date (12/1/2023) and run the draft on Monday night.

My apologies for the mix up.


Wednesday, December 11, 2013

Sim's Done -- Rule 5 Draft Coming Up

Game Date:  11/27/2023

The Rule 5 Draft is coming up next sim.  Please be sure to protect players you want to protect.

You can submit your draft picks through the game OR send them to Michael and myself by email.

The draft will be held on Saturday night.  Please keep in mind that players that you select may be protected by the time the draft comes around.


Monday, December 9, 2013

Sim's Done

Game Date:  11/20/2023

Free Agent Signings:
Atlanta signed SP Wesley Dutton (no previous team) to a minor league contract.
Shackamaxon signed 3B (Houston) to a minor league contract.
Shackamaxon signed 3B Lason Lefebvre (Maui) to a 2 yr/$2m contract.
Antelope Valley signed C Lawrence Richardson to a 3 yr/$21m extension.

Ohio SP Pedro Ramos suffered a setback and chose to retire.  He leaves the game with 310 saves, third on the all time list.

Next sim:  Tuesday night.

Sunday, December 8, 2013

Rain Delay

I'm sorry, guys, I'm going to have to delay the sim to tomorrow night.


Friday, December 6, 2013

Sim's Done

Game Date:  11/13/2023

Sorry... I finished the sim late last night but did not have the chance to update the pages on the website.

Next sim:  Sunday.

Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Revisiting An Old Top Prospects List

While looking around the league blog, I came across a post I wrote in September 2007 (after the 2010 season). It was a list of the Top 20 prospects at the time.  I highlighted the fact that, among the league's top 20, seven were in the employ of the Wolves.

Here's a look back on those 20 and where they are today (Brooklyn prospects shaded in blue):
Player, Team
2023 Team (ML Years)
Significant Stats
Gregorio Marzanno, RIV

2009 G, .309 BA/.888 OPS, 2295 H, 296 HR, 1183 RBI
Mohammed Stelly, SEA
Retired (2011-17)
Three great years and then mysteriously declined.
895G, .285 BA/.791 OPS, 960 H, 125 HR
Chester Cohen, NY
Retired (2010-19)
Had two very good seasons.
954 G, .299 BA/.834 OPS, 920 H, 121 HR
George LaBarre, SEA
Hickory (2012-23)

1713 G, .284 BA/.832 OPS, 1838 H, 279 HR, 334 SB
Jeff Wardlaw, BRK
Brooklyn (2011-23)

1831 G, .245BA/.746 OPS, 1471 H, 250 HR, 870 RBI
Paul Guerrero, HIK
Retired (2013)
Suffered career ending injury in 2015
52 G
Jose Guzman, DAN
Retired (2011-18)

1036 G, .286 BA/.814 OPS, 929 H, 147 HR
William Ward, RIV
Retired (2012-18, 21)

802 G, .208 BA, 408 H
Fredrick Thomas, NY
Retired (2011-18)
Outstanding Pitcher in 2013 (age 27, 25-6), never had a winning season again. 
222 GS, 87-86, 4.04 ERA
Alberto Granado, SEA
Hickory (2012-22)
Played 2023 in AAA
1374 G, .285 BA/.798 OPS, 1445 H,
Octavio Cabrales, DEN
Brick (2011-23)

1437 G, .320 BA/.860 OPS, 191 HR, 780 RBI
Cornelius Bondy, BRK
Retired (2011-18)

823 G, .253 BA, 107 HR
Jeffrey Brunton, WAL
London (2011-16, 18-23)

305 GS, 123-101, 4.10 ERA
Bill Oleson, BRK
Retired (2011-16)
Best season was his first - 11-5, 3.48
109 GS, 38-41, 4.89 ERA
Anthony Koepp, SB
Retired (2011-19)

250 GS, 85-98, 4.56 ERA
Bruce Parker, BRK
Antelope Valley (2011-23)
.333, 32 HR, 120 RBI, .956 OPS in 2014
1690 G, .285 BA/.849 OPS, 1791 H, 283 HR, 933 RBI
Ronald Chambers, BRK
Retired (2012-18)

742 G, .259 BA
James Banks, BRK
Retired (2011-17)
Had two good years in 2013-14, then declined.
802 G, .270 BA
Edward Booth, RIV
Retired (2011-18)

755 G, .224 BA
John Jacobs, BRK
Retired (2012-20)

1112 G, .274 BA/.780 OPS, 849 H, 99 HR, 56 SB

(Yeah, I know the formatting is all messed up...)

Interestingly, of the seven prospects I had in the Top 20, I had two that went on to good, long careers (Wardlaw, Parker), two that went on to become average players with nice careers (Bondy, Jacobs) and three who were marginal at best (Oleson, Chambers and Banks). 

So, what would you say?  Should I have gotten better out of this crop of prospects, or is that what you might have expected from such a list?


Attention K-Mart Shoppers... Your Free Agents Can Be Found On Aisle 7!!

Game Date:  11/6/2013

The sim has been run and the free agents have hit the market.  Get 'em while they're still hot!

Next sim:  Thursday evening.


Monday, December 2, 2013

Awards Season, Part II

Game Date:  10/30/2023

The rest of the league awards were given out this past week.

The Outstanding Batter award was given to Houston 1B Nigel Bryant who had a monster of a season this year.  Bryant finished the season with a .366 batting average, a .690 slugging percentage and an insane 1.173 OPS.  He earned five Player of the Week and two Player of the Month awards this year alone.  He led the league in many offensive categories.   His OBP and OPS set new league records.   This is Bryant's second award, having previously won in 2020.

The Outstanding Pitcher this year was Maui's Juan Villatoro, who picks up his second award.  His 18-10 record doesn't really reflect the type of season he had.  His ERA was a lowly 2.20 and his WHIP was a downright stingy 0.85.  215 batters returned to the dugout after being struck out by Villatoro. 

The next sim will be Tuesday night.  If I remember correctly, this is your last chance to come to terms with your pending free agents.