Wednesday, December 4, 2013

Revisiting An Old Top Prospects List

While looking around the league blog, I came across a post I wrote in September 2007 (after the 2010 season). It was a list of the Top 20 prospects at the time.  I highlighted the fact that, among the league's top 20, seven were in the employ of the Wolves.

Here's a look back on those 20 and where they are today (Brooklyn prospects shaded in blue):
Rank
Player, Team
2023 Team (ML Years)
Notes
Significant Stats
1
Gregorio Marzanno, RIV
Brick

2009 G, .309 BA/.888 OPS, 2295 H, 296 HR, 1183 RBI
2
Mohammed Stelly, SEA
Retired (2011-17)
Three great years and then mysteriously declined.
895G, .285 BA/.791 OPS, 960 H, 125 HR
3
Chester Cohen, NY
Retired (2010-19)
Had two very good seasons.
954 G, .299 BA/.834 OPS, 920 H, 121 HR
4
George LaBarre, SEA
Hickory (2012-23)

1713 G, .284 BA/.832 OPS, 1838 H, 279 HR, 334 SB
5
Jeff Wardlaw, BRK
Brooklyn (2011-23)

1831 G, .245BA/.746 OPS, 1471 H, 250 HR, 870 RBI
6
Paul Guerrero, HIK
Retired (2013)
Suffered career ending injury in 2015
52 G
7
Jose Guzman, DAN
Retired (2011-18)

1036 G, .286 BA/.814 OPS, 929 H, 147 HR
8
William Ward, RIV
Retired (2012-18, 21)

802 G, .208 BA, 408 H
9
Fredrick Thomas, NY
Retired (2011-18)
Outstanding Pitcher in 2013 (age 27, 25-6), never had a winning season again. 
222 GS, 87-86, 4.04 ERA
10
Alberto Granado, SEA
Hickory (2012-22)
Played 2023 in AAA
1374 G, .285 BA/.798 OPS, 1445 H,
11
Octavio Cabrales, DEN
Brick (2011-23)

1437 G, .320 BA/.860 OPS, 191 HR, 780 RBI
12
Cornelius Bondy, BRK
Retired (2011-18)

823 G, .253 BA, 107 HR
13
Jeffrey Brunton, WAL
London (2011-16, 18-23)

305 GS, 123-101, 4.10 ERA
14
Bill Oleson, BRK
Retired (2011-16)
Best season was his first - 11-5, 3.48
109 GS, 38-41, 4.89 ERA
15
Anthony Koepp, SB
Retired (2011-19)

250 GS, 85-98, 4.56 ERA
16
Bruce Parker, BRK
Antelope Valley (2011-23)
.333, 32 HR, 120 RBI, .956 OPS in 2014
1690 G, .285 BA/.849 OPS, 1791 H, 283 HR, 933 RBI
17
Ronald Chambers, BRK
Retired (2012-18)

742 G, .259 BA
18
James Banks, BRK
Retired (2011-17)
Had two good years in 2013-14, then declined.
802 G, .270 BA
19
Edward Booth, RIV
Retired (2011-18)

755 G, .224 BA
20
John Jacobs, BRK
Retired (2012-20)

1112 G, .274 BA/.780 OPS, 849 H, 99 HR, 56 SB

(Yeah, I know the formatting is all messed up...)

Interestingly, of the seven prospects I had in the Top 20, I had two that went on to good, long careers (Wardlaw, Parker), two that went on to become average players with nice careers (Bondy, Jacobs) and three who were marginal at best (Oleson, Chambers and Banks). 

So, what would you say?  Should I have gotten better out of this crop of prospects, or is that what you might have expected from such a list?

Zev

3 comments:

  1. That doesn't seem like an unreasonable success rate to me. It's obviously disappointing, but a lot of top prospects flame out. Far more than most people realize.

    I'm still bitter about Paul Guerrero, above. He was the #1 prospect a little after this, I traded for him, he was on track to become a star and then blammo, career-ending injury.

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  2. The same way that I was very bitter over Oscar Villaplano (sp?) he was the top pitching prospect and right before we upgraded from 6.5, he was gone. I can still remember the morning that I went to the updated webpage right when I woke up and he was gone from my team. I was about to write Zev a nasty e-mail, and I decided to download the game and I saw that he had a career ending injury on his last minor league start that he was ever going to make and retired. I was so pissed and really would have liked to see what he could have done.

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