Friday, January 30, 2015

Thursday Sim Done

Game Date:  Feb 2, 2026

Signings: None

Next sim:  Saturday night or Sunday morning.


Thursday, January 29, 2015

2025 Team Statistical Oddities

I've been behind this year, but I finally updated my master chart of team statistics. Here are the things I thought noteworthy.

  • This was the closest season ever, as measured by the total number of games back that teams finished. Teams finished a combined total of 148 games out of first place. In contrast, in 2011, teams finished a combined total of 492 games out of first place thanks to 125 wins and 119 wins from those obnoxious jerks in Seattle and River Cities, respectively.
  • There were the second-most extra-inning games ever at 109. (2005 had 111.)
  • Batting averages jumped 10 points to .275, the highest ever. (2022 and 2023 were .268.) OBP, SLG, and OPS also all set highs at .343/.443/.785.
  • There were more home runs (2,386) than ever. (2022 had 2,374.)
  • There were more strikeouts than ever at 14,349. (2023 had 13,722.) Houston hitters struck out more than any team ever—1,440 times. (2009 Covington had 1,402.)
  • There were much fewer stolen bases than ever, just 651. (2003 had 827.)
  • League ERA was 4.74, highest ever. (2022 was 4.73.) There were more total runs in 2023 (9,882 vs. 9,858) but fewer were unearned this year.
  • Along those lines, the league had the highest fielding percentage ever at .985 and the fewest errors at 1,084. (2022 was .984 and 1,141.)
  • There were many more double plays in the league this year (2,019) than ever before. The prior record was only 1,802 way back in 2005. Brick had the most double-plays ever with 188. (2004 Hickory, 186.) Houston was third all-time, Seattle fifth, Shackamaxon eighth, and Brooklyn ninth.
  • Antelope Valley finished with its second-best record ever and best Pythagorean record in 20 years, since the 2005 California squad went 87-75.
  • Brooklyn won the Adams division for the fifth time in a row, but its 82-80 record was the second-worst record for a division winner ever. The worst was Hickory’s 74-88 season in 2020. That was the same year when three of the four Zotti teams finished with more than 100 wins.
  • Philadelphia won its division for the first time in club history. It was also Philly’s second ever playoff berth, as the 2012 New York squad had made it as a wild card. 
  • Shackamaxon finished with a better record than its Pythagorean record for the seventh consecutive season. The only longer streak like that in league history was the 2004-2012 Butte/Denver/Hartford squad now located in Maui.
  • Seattle went 64-17 at home and 45-36 on the road. The 19-game disparity was the third largest in history. (2013 Hickory was 52-29 at home and only 27-54 on the road; 2012 Barstow was 56-25 at home and 36-45 on the road).
  • Seattle was 16-5 in extra-inning games. That tied the 2005 Seattle team for the most extra-inning wins in a season. The Monarchs’ .762 winning percentage was far below the record though, as New York went 11-1 in extra-inning games in 2021.
  • Shackamaxon had the fifth-most home runs in a season with 250. (2023 Seattle, 315.)
  • Shackamaxon also had the fifth-most walks received ever with 699. (2024 Maui, 748.)
  • Atlanta yielded the second highest BABIP ever at .338. (2021 Monck’s Corner, .349.)
  • Antelope Valley and Maui had the two best fielding percentages ever, at .990 and .989 respectively and the fewest errors ever with 63 each. (2021 Seattle, .988 and 71.) Maui also had the fifth-fewest assists ever while Antelope Valley was middle of the pack historically, so I don’t know what to make of that.
  • Maui and Antelope Valley each gave up only 33 unearned runs, tied for third fewest ever. (2021 Seattle, 30).

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Wednesday Sim Done

Game Date:  Jan 26, 2026

Maui:  2B Hernando Albacete (Shackamaxon), 1 yr/$700k
Shackamaxon:  LF Guillermo Martinez (Houston), 1 yr/$2.25m

The preseason has begun.  You now have the opportunity to set up your scouting and international player development budgets.  You can do this through the preseason.

Next sim:  Thursday night


The reason i think we have no closers in the discussion for the HOF ..I saw no statistics involving the save among the criteria for the HOF. Unless i missed it on  the blog you posted..that might bring some closers into the discussion...Did i see it right or did i miss it some where

Tuesday, January 27, 2015

The Value of a Draft Pick

Today, we're going to look at the value (in terms of WAR) of a draft pick.

I only have WAR values and draft data for 2014 onward, so the results presented here reflect only that portion of the data.

The first thing we'll take a look at is the value of a draft round overall. Here's a graph of the data (I eliminated rounds 16-25 since that only happened one year -- this past one -- and none of them have yet played in the majors.)

This chart shows the average WAR of all the players selected in any given round.  If a player never made it to the majors, I changed the NULL WAR value to 0.

As you can see (and probably knew already), the first round draft pick is, by far, the most valuable, with an average WAR of 3.35 per player.  After that the value steadily decreases per round until the fifth round where the value drops, essentially, to 0.  There is an odd blip in the ninth round, but that is caused by two players drafted in the ninth round in 2016 -- Juan Gomez (Brooklyn) and Gene Reynolds (New York), who have lifetime WARs over 20.   In fact, those two players are the only two players (so far) to be drafted anywhere after the fourth round and have a WAR value over twenty.  Personally, I'd love to say that it was my genius that recognized Juan Gomez's talent at that late round, except for two facts:  (1) I probably had the computer pick him at that late round and (2) I ended up trading him to Mack anyway.

Next, let's take a look at the value of a first round draft pick.  As we saw above, a first round pick is, by far, the most valuable pick a team has.  However, even within the first round, there is quite a bit of variability:

I'm not quite sure to make of this data.  Clearly the first two picks are the most valuable, as you would normally expect.  The blip by pick #7 is the result of two players with WARs over 30 -- Masahide Ueda (Ohio, 2016) and Jonathan Anderson (Seattle, 2017).  The fact that my sample size is so small (only 12 elements) may be allowing Ueda and Anderson to have undue influence on the totals.

I am surprised, however, by the fact that values for the last two picks of the first round do not even measure up to an average pick in the third round.  There are no #11 or #12 picks with WARs over 10.  However, you do find them at almost all pick in the second round -  #13 (two players), #14 (3), #15 (1), #16 (2), #17 (3), #18 (1), #20 (1), #21 (1), #23 (1) and #24 (1).  I'm not sure why players selected at the end of the first round have generally been not as good as the average for players selected in later rounds.

Want to see any other statistical analyses?  Let me know...


Tuesday Sim Done

Game Date:  Jan 19 2026

Signings:  None

Next sim:  Wednesday night

Teaser: What's was the value of that draft pick you traded away?

I'm still crunching the numbers... look for it in the near future.... :)

Monday, January 26, 2015

Monday's Sim Done

Game Date:  Jan 12, 2026

Shackamaxon:  MR Adam Hone (re-signed), 2 yrs/$1.6m
Shackamaxon:  RP  Kwang-sub Kim (re-signed), 2 yrs/$1.85m
Brooklyn:  SP John Kautz (Atlanta), 2 yrs/$12.5m
Shackamaxon:  RP Tsumich Yoshida (re-signed), minor league contract
Atlanta:  RP Ray Lewis (Hickory), 4 yrs/$27.2m

Be sure to check out my posts on Hall of Fame Standards.

Next sim:  Tuesday night

Hall of Fame Standards, Pitchers, Part 2

Yesterday, we discussed the Hall of Fame Standards for batters.  Today, we'll discuss them for pitchers in our league.

As a refresher, a HOF Standards score of 50 indicates an average Hall of Famer.  Points are awarded as follows:

1 point for every:
  • 10 W over 100, limit 25
  • 20 games over .500, limit 10
  • .013 WPct over .500, limit 15 (min 500 IP)
  • .20 ERA under 4.00, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
  • 200K over 1000, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
  • .3 BB/9IP under 4.00, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
  • .3 H/9IP under 10.00, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
  • 1000 IP over 1000, limit 5
  • 100 CG over 200, limit 5
  • 30 SHO, limit 5

I adjusted the last two for our league.  There is no one in the history of our league with anywhere close to 100 CG or 30 SHO.  As a result, I made it one point for every four CG over 30 and one point for every seven SHO (both subject to a limit of 5).  

So, who are the top pitchers?  Here's the top 10 (minimum 150 GS):

(Italics indicates an active pitcher, Bold indicates a Hall of Famer)

Juan Villatoro (82!) 
Demarcus Ramirez (72)
Ronald Placencia (72)
Christopher Hester (68)
John Okane (61)
Chad Nelligan (59)
Richard Pimental (48)
Fernando Estrada (47)
Albert Garcia (46)
Joseph Macaluso (45)

Some statistical reference points:
Average HOFs for all 110 qualifying pitchers:  21.55
Median HOFs:  21
Standard Deviation:  17.43

Despite Villatoro's extremely high score, he is "only" 2.87 SD above the average (as opposed to Hukill who is more than 3 SD above the mean for non-pitchers with an HOFs of 72).  In fact, there are only 11 pitchers who are better than 1 SD above the mean (the above 10 and Enrico Hernandez (44)).

Of these, some have been retired for a while.  Pimental's last season was 2014 and Garcia's was 2012.  The rest of the non-inductees have pitched in 2022 or later.

One thing that struck me was the lack of lefties among the elite pitchers in the league.  A quick check of the players database reveals that lefties comprise 28% of the all-time pitching pool.  However, they only make up 12% of the top 25 pitchers on the list (3/25 -- Okane, Bill Siple (42), Isaac Diehl (37)).  What does that mean?  I don't know... I'll leave that up to you to decide.  :)

In any event, I've added a tab to the spreadsheet for pitchers.  All 110 pitchers who have started a minimum of 150 games from the 2003 season and later. (GS was not recorded in OOTP 4, which is the version we used for the 2002 season).  You can see that spreadsheet here.

As a last point, Michael and I started discussing additions to the Hall and one of the questions that has to be asked is how exclusive should the Hall be?  Should fewer than 1% of all players be enshrined?  Should it be more expansive (perhaps as high as 4%?)

For historical context, 18,082 men have played in major league baseball since 1876.  Of those, 223 have been selected to the major leagues (excluding those elected as managers, executives, primarily on the basis of their excellence in the Negro Leagues, etc.).  That comes to a percentage of 1.2%.  Our league has had 1473 players play at least one game -- so with four Hall of Famers, we're currently at 0.3%. A Hall of 1.2% would have 18 players in it.

So, what do you think?  Let me know...  Want to see any other statistical analyses?  Let me know....


Hall of Fame Standards, Take 2

About a year ago, real time, I did some database work to calculate the Hall of Fame Standards for our players.  Alas, last October, my old computer crashed, wiping out the data.

I finally got around to installing SQL Server on my new laptop and decided to update the numbers.

For an explanation of how HOF Standards are calculated, feel free to look here.  For the calculations, I used Bill James's defensive adjustments.  The key thing to remember is that a score of 50 is the mark of an average Hall of Famer.

One thing you might notice is that the numbers for retired players may be different than last time.  Unfortunately, I don't have the code to check whether or not I made a mistake in the previous calculations, but I ran over these with a sample player or two step by step to make sure they looked right.

To be included here, a player must have played 1000 games at the major league level.  Players are listed by their primary position in the game (regardless of where they actually played).

So, how do our players rate?

Italics indicates player active in 2025.
Bold indicates a  player inducted into the Hall of Fame.

CATCHERS (19 players)
The top 5 catchers are:
Herman Gossard (40)
Beau Manning (37)
Waylon Blassingame (36)
Richard Birbey (34)
Alberto Granado (30)

Interestingly, if you lower the bar to only 500 games, two active catchers jump to the top of the list:
Aaron Hampton (48)
Steve Jones (46)
Also, Brian Walker would come in at fifth place with 38.

FIRST BASE (14 players)
Luis Jeon (56)
Dong Lutz (55)
Gregorio Marzano (47)
Gregory Mudge (41)
Timothy Palacio (35)

SECOND BASE (12 players)
John Grondin (62)
Juan Melton (39)
Timothy Mendiola (38),
Winston Satterlee (30)
Bill Turek (27)

It's pretty clear that John Grondin is the greatest second baseman the league has ever seen.  It's also pretty clear that there are very few good second basemen in general in the league.  However, if the bar is lowered to 500 games, upcomers Gene Reynolds and Norman Kuhn jump to second and third on the list.

THIRD BASE (15 players)
John Hukill (72)
Ronald Quijada (63)
Andres Velasco (47)
George LaBarre (44)
Octavio Cabralles (43)

We are living in the Golden Age of third basemen.  All five of the top third sackers are still active, including Hukill, who is the highest ranked player overall in the league.  The top retired player?  Eugene Alustiza, who comes in at seventh with 37.

SHORTSTOP (13 players)
Ricky Peppers (60)
Carmelo Deleon (41)
Richard Bender (35)
Lincoln Rosetti (33)
Jeff Wardlaw (32)

With the bar lowered to 500 games, two more active shortstops advance to the top of the list:  Katsuhiko Jouda (44) and Rick Bryant (37)

LEFT FIELD (16 players)
Brian Frison (65)
Rufus Murray (51)
Christopher Moss (46)
Patrick Valdes (41)
Miguel Cuesta (34)

CENTER FIELD (17 players)
Sean Arant (42)
Michael Fay (40)
Monte Goss (32)
Armando Cedeno (28)
Lonnie Manchen (26)

The highest ranked active center fielder is Bas Bijkerk, way down in ninth at 21.  If we include players with only 500 games, we only add one active player to the top 10 -- Angel Banuelos, who would be third with 34.

RIGHT FIELDER (7 players -- yep, only seven!)
Paul Shunk (48)
Patrick Welsh (32)
Raul Ortega (26)
Hal Pires (25)
Lowell Maclin (19)
Samuel Santos (8)
Tony Demiras (8)

Talk about a shocker -- I wonder if I go back and look... how many of us use left fields in right field?  Obviously the answer is a lot of us if only seven right-fielders managed to play 1200 games or more.   Shunk looks worthy and Welsh may be a borderline case, but that's about it.

Fortunately, there is relief on the way.  After including players with at least 500 games played, Ray McJannett jumps to a tie for second on the list on the list (37, with the long-retired Roberto Casarez) and Lucio Muniz comes in fourth at 36.

Hukill (72)
Frison (65)
Quijada (63)
Grondin (62)
Peppers (60)

There are 105 position players who have played 1200 or more games in the majors since the league's inaugural year back in 2002.  They rank from John Hukill (72) down to Jonathan Willet (5).

The average HOFs is 27.80
The median HOFs is 25
The standard deviation is 13.78

This places Hukill at 3.2 standard deviations above the mean.  Five other players (the rest of the top five above and Jeon) are 2 or more SDs above the mean.  Our two current Hall of Famers come in at .95 (Mudge) and .88 (Fay) SDs above the mean.

Want to see the complete list of 105 players?  Feel free to look here.

Do you want to see another statistical analysis done?  Just let me know what you want.


Sunday, January 25, 2015


As we turn the calendar page to 2026, a number of players have announced their retirements.  Among the players with significant major league playing time are:

  • P Thomas Moore, 6 seasons, 26-27, 4.73
  • 2B Jason Lefebvre, 10 seasons, .275/.376/.470/.846, 211 HR, 646 RBI
  • P Jacobo Centeno, 9 seasons, 473 G, 5.13 ERA
  • P Rocco Sorenson, 6 seasons, 314 G, 4.44 ERA,
  • RF Ronald Amos, 11 seasons, .301/.348/.427/.774
  • P William Connolly, 6 seasons, 50-54, 5.21
  • RP Bill Dewall, 16 seasons, 985 G (4th overall), 82-80, 247 SV, 3.63 ERA
  • LF Brian Frison, 18 seasons, 2444 G (5th), .307/.383/.565/.948 (7th) 517 HR, (4th overall) 1752 RBI (3rd), 445 SB (4th), 2 Outstanding Batter Awards
  • SS William Midkiff, 11 seasons, .273/.340/.376/.716, 213 SB
  • P Jamie Cruz, 11 seasons, 83-96, 4.73 ERA
  • RP Pablo Garcia, 10 seasons, 498 G, 4.37 ERA
  • RP Kenneth Wood, 8 seasons, 364 G, 5.64 ERA
  • SP James Turner, 16 seasons, 163-147, 3.61 ERA
  • P Kyle Fike, 15 seasons, 152-79, 3.41, 2016 Outstanding Pitcher
  • CF Monte Goss, 15 seasons, 1905 G, .313/.356/.444/.800, 116 HR, 764 RBI, 110 SB
  • SP Danny Andrews, 13 seasons, 113-152, 4.83 ERA
  • CF George Vidal, 11 seasons, .266/.342/.415/.757
  • RP Victor Valles, 12 seasons, 683 G, 3.94 ERA
  • CF Guillame Fournier, 8 seasons, .252/.307/.385/.691
  • RF Claudio Valentin, 8 seasons, .256/.329/.397/.726
  • SP Juan Morales, 6 seasons, 87-32, 3.42 ERA.  Check out this career -- what happened to him after the trade?
  • RP Troy Robinson, 6 seasons, 347 G, 5.00 ERA
  • CF Tim Combs, 7 seasons, .289/.322/.376/.698, 130 SB

Saturday's Sim's Done

Game:  Jan 5, 2026

Signings:  Shackamaxon:  MR Tony Dominguez (re-signed), 2 yrs/$2m.

Next sim:  Monday night.

Thursday, January 22, 2015

Thursday's Sim Done

Game Date:  Dec 29, 2025

Atlanta:  MR Manuel Galindo (Maui), 3 yr/$16.5m
Maui:  LF Kyung-hwan Pak (Houston) 3 yr/$29m

Next sim:  Saturday night. -- join us in 2026!

Wednesday, January 21, 2015

Wednesday's Sim Done

Game Date:  Dec 22, 2025

Brooklyn:  CF Kevin Works (re-signed), 3 yrs/$19m
Maui:  1B Zhi-xin Tah (international), minor league contract
Brooklyn:  MR Trey Albarado (re-signed), minor league contract

Next sim:  Thursday night

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Tuesday Sim Done

Game Date:  Dec 15, 2025

Shackamaxon:  SP Paco Nunez (international), minor league contract
Shackamaxon:  C Barney Maxon (Maui), 1 yr/$950k
Shackamaxon:  LF Ignacio Lopez (London), 1 yr/$600k.

Next sim:  Wednesday night.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Next Sim Tuesday Night

My apologies, folks... a few rough and busy days here. 

The next sim will be on Tuesday evening.


Friday, January 16, 2015

Sim ran last night

Zev ran the sim last night, but didn't post it on the blog or update the web pages. No free agent signings, as far as I can see.

Wednesday, January 14, 2015

Rule 5 Draft Complete

Game Date:  Dec 2 2025

Rule 5 Draft Results:

Houston:  SS Jose Ortiz (Brick)
Atlanta:  CL Jesus Cruz (Hickory)
Brick:  SS Hector Castillo (Maui)

Next sim:  Thursday night.
London and Brick complete  a trade ....London sends to Brick Salvador Velasquez power hitting 26 year old outfielder along with 2 draft picks a second and a fourth round in this years draft for Tanaka outfielder and Enrique Martinez second basemen and Romano third basemen along with double a pitcher Hickford... both teams are very happy London adding quality players at several positions an Brick adding big pop to the middle of the line up

Monday, January 12, 2015

Sim's Done

Game Date:  Dec 1 2025

Sim's done and we're now at the Rule 5 Draft.

If you send a draft list, please let me know.  You don't have to tell me who you picked -- just let me know that you sent a list so that I can make sure the game has it before I run the draft.

Rule 5 draft will be run on Wednesday night.


Sunday, January 11, 2015

Antelope Valley/Shackamaxon Complete Deal

The Antelope Valley Raptors added some much needed pitching depth, dealing for Shackamaxon veteran Jermaine Earp.  The 34 year old Earp was 15-5 last year with a 4.23 ERA and a WHIP of 1.44.  Earp will bring his career 86-62 record, 4.41 ERA and join a rotation that consists of veterans Craig and Sweeney and youngsters Klein and Kichikawa.

In securing Earp, the Raptors give up Single A Modesto RP Jorge Gonzalez (a late round pick in last years draft) and this years 5th round pick.

Thursday, January 8, 2015

Sim's Done

Game Date:  Nov 30, 2025

Brooklyn:  CF Ben Beard (re-signed), 2 yr/$3.2m
Atlanta: MR Manuel Fernandez (international), 2yr/$1.25m
Maui:  MR Juan Guerrera (Brooklyn) 3 yr/$22.5m
Maui:  C Lonnie Draeger (Seattle) 4 yrs/$8m
Maui:  MR Joseph Curry (re-signed) 2 yrs/$1.7m

Next sim:  Sunday night, which will bring us to the Rule 5 Draft.  The Rule 5 Draft will be run next Wednesday.  Please be sure to protect the players you want by adding them to your 40 man roster.


Wednesday, January 7, 2015

Sim's Done

Game Date: Nov 24, 2025

Still no major signings.

The next sim, on Thursday night, will take us to a day before the Rule 5 Draft.  Please be sure to protect those players whom you want to protect by putting them on your 40-man roster.


No Sim Today

I'm sorry everyone, but I just had a day that went completely kablooie.  I'll run the sim tomorrow (Wednesday night).

Monday, January 5, 2015

Sim's Done!

Game Date:  Nov 17, 2025

You might want to think about protecting players from the Rule 5 draft by adding them to the 40-man roster.

Next sim:  Tuesday night.

Sunday, January 4, 2015

Attention K-Mart Shoppers! Free Agents Available in Aisle Five

Game Date:  Nov 10, 2025

The free agents have hit the market.  Scoop 'em up while they last.

Next sim:  Monday evening.

Trade: Ohio and Brick

In a trade of minor leaguers, the Ohio Buckeyes have traded AAA CF Bill Love to the Brick Barracudas for AAA MR Gong-sun Xu.

These are the kinds of deals that don't make big headlines, but are useful in building a solid ML squad. In this case, both teams are chasing the Seattle juggernaut and are trading from relative strengths to bolster their depth.

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Atlanta on the Rebuild - Trade with Seattle

Seattle sends MR Hector Sanchez to Atlanta for their 2026 8th round pick. Atlanta is ready to rebuild (or is it just to reload).

Friday, January 2, 2015

Sim's Done -- More Hardware -- Free Agency Is Here!

Game Date:  11/3/2025

More awards were given out this sim.  They include:

CL Pat Carmichael of Seattle was named Outstanding Pitcher of the Year (72G, 11-2, 39 SV, 1.69 ERA.

(Mack, is this the first time a non-starter ever won the OP award?)

Shackamaxon's Scott Loman came in second and Seattle rookie Toyoshiga Takahashi came in third.

Hickory LF Sherman Evanoff was named Outstanding Batter (48HR, 138 RBI, .313/.451/.651/1.102).
Seattle's 3B Terry Hubbard and C Steve Jones came in second and third.

This sim will be the last sim before those eligible for free agency actually become free agents.  In other words, this is your last chance to have them accept an offer before becoming available to everyone else.

The sim will be run on Sunday night.