The Maui Mashers jumped out to a 1-0 lead in the Cecil Cup series with a 6-1 victory over the Seattle Monarchs.
Maui jumped out to an early lead on Lindsay Walker's solo home run in the first. Maui added a pair of runs on Octavio Calabres' single in the third. Seattle's woes were further compounded when starter Christopher Hester suffered a mild hamstring sprain and had to leave the game. The Mashers scored an additional three runs in the sixth. Seattle did manage to push a single run across the plate in the seventh, but they never seriously presented a threat.
Game 2: Wednesday night.
Tuesday, April 30, 2013
SDMB Playoff History - Still a Coin Flip?
Frankly, Jeremy's recent snide blog comments almost dissuaded me from writing this post, but here goes anyway.
We now have 10 years of history in the books with four playoff teams, and it's reasonably clear that the first round of the playoffs is not coming out the same way that the championship round does. First, the raw data (which obviously does not include the forthcoming Seattle-Maui series).
Cecil Cup
Round One
Here are the conclusions I've tentatively drawn.
1. A hundred or so games and 20 series is still a small sample size, so everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
2. It does appear that the "better" regular season team has an advantage in Round 1 beyond mere chance. I haven't looked at the statistical significance of the numbers, but that seems relatively clear.
3. I believe most of the variance in the results is explained by the larger gulfs between playoff teams. In the first eleven years of the league, when there was only one round of playoffs, the biggest gap in regular season records between championship contenders was eight games (in 2012). In the last ten years, in Round One we have seen regular-season-win gaps of 35 games, 29 games, 27 games, 26 games (twice), 23 games, and 21 games. Only once in those seemingly lopsided series has the team with fewer wins prevailed (2014, Cleveland over River Cities). If you take those seven series out of the data, and look only at Round One series where the teams were within 20 games of each other, the team with the better regular season record has won 8 of 13 Round One series. Those series appear more random and more like the Cecil Cup samples. I suspect that if I set the line at a 15-game gap, the numbers would get even closer to 50-50.
And so, I'm amending the much-derided "coin flip" theory.
I never really believed series were a true coin flip, as in a truly 50-50 proposition. The better team always had a slightly better chance of prevailing. I just thought that the true odds were far, far closer to 50-50 than most people believed. I thought that the "better" team only advanced maybe 55% of the time, which is close enough to a coin flip to make little difference.
Now I see that in series where there are large gaps in regular season records, it's not a coin flip. It's more like an NBA playoff series where the favorite usually, but not always, wins.
As always, I'm happy to respond to any questions or comments.
We now have 10 years of history in the books with four playoff teams, and it's reasonably clear that the first round of the playoffs is not coming out the same way that the championship round does. First, the raw data (which obviously does not include the forthcoming Seattle-Maui series).
Cecil Cup
- When there's been a difference in records, the team with more regular season wins has won 7 of 19 series and 46 of the 103 games in those series. That's a series-winning percentage of .368 and a game-winning percentage of .446.
- When there's been a difference in records, the team with a better Pythagorean record has won 8 of 16 series and 46 of the 88 games in those series. That's a series-winning percentage of .500 and a game-winning percentage of .522.
- For the 19 series where I have game-by-game data, the home team has won 62 of 104 games. That's a winning percentage of .596.
Round One
- The team with more regular season wins has won 14 of 20 series and 67 of the 106 games in the Round One series. That's a series-winning percentage of .700 and a game-winning percentage of .632.
- When there's been a difference in records, the team with a better Pythagorean record has won 10 of 18 series and 55 of the 97 games in those series. That's a series-winning percentage of .556 and a game-winning percentage of .567.
- The home team has won 51 of 106 games. That's a winning percentage of .481.
Here are the conclusions I've tentatively drawn.
1. A hundred or so games and 20 series is still a small sample size, so everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt.
2. It does appear that the "better" regular season team has an advantage in Round 1 beyond mere chance. I haven't looked at the statistical significance of the numbers, but that seems relatively clear.
3. I believe most of the variance in the results is explained by the larger gulfs between playoff teams. In the first eleven years of the league, when there was only one round of playoffs, the biggest gap in regular season records between championship contenders was eight games (in 2012). In the last ten years, in Round One we have seen regular-season-win gaps of 35 games, 29 games, 27 games, 26 games (twice), 23 games, and 21 games. Only once in those seemingly lopsided series has the team with fewer wins prevailed (2014, Cleveland over River Cities). If you take those seven series out of the data, and look only at Round One series where the teams were within 20 games of each other, the team with the better regular season record has won 8 of 13 Round One series. Those series appear more random and more like the Cecil Cup samples. I suspect that if I set the line at a 15-game gap, the numbers would get even closer to 50-50.
And so, I'm amending the much-derided "coin flip" theory.
I never really believed series were a true coin flip, as in a truly 50-50 proposition. The better team always had a slightly better chance of prevailing. I just thought that the true odds were far, far closer to 50-50 than most people believed. I thought that the "better" team only advanced maybe 55% of the time, which is close enough to a coin flip to make little difference.
Now I see that in series where there are large gaps in regular season records, it's not a coin flip. It's more like an NBA playoff series where the favorite usually, but not always, wins.
As always, I'm happy to respond to any questions or comments.
Monday, April 29, 2013
Maui, Seattle Complete Playoff Series Victories, Go On To Cecil Cup Series
For the fourth straight season, it will be the Maui Mashers vs. the Seattle Monarchs in the Cecil Cup.
Seattle finished off the Brooklyn Wolves today with a 5-2 victory. Brooklyn jumped on the scoreboard first on a solo home run by Juan Carillo. Seattle tied it up with an Enrico Hernandez RBI double in the top of the fifth. Brooklyn pushed another run in the bottom of the frame on Andy Robertson's sac fly. Seattle once again tied it up in the 6th thanks to Jonathan Anderson's solo homer. They then took the lead for good in the eighth when Juan Gomez drove home Anderson. Seattle added another two runs in the ninth as insurance.
In the other game, the Maui Mashers sent the Shackamaxon Lenape home with an 11-1 drubbing. Maui quickly put three runs on the board in the first inning and never looked back. Juan Villatoro scattered eight hits in seven innings while giving up only one run.
So now, the Monarchs will try to draw even against the Mashers in their transPacific rivalry. Maui won the first two times these teams met in the Cecil Cup, but Seattle won the last time and will now try to make it two in a row and even their rivalry.
Cecil Cup Schedule:
Game 1: Tuesday night
Game 2: Wednesday night
Game 3: Thursday night
Game 4: Saturday night
Game 5: Sunday night
Game 6: Monday night
Game 7: Tuesday night.
Seattle finished off the Brooklyn Wolves today with a 5-2 victory. Brooklyn jumped on the scoreboard first on a solo home run by Juan Carillo. Seattle tied it up with an Enrico Hernandez RBI double in the top of the fifth. Brooklyn pushed another run in the bottom of the frame on Andy Robertson's sac fly. Seattle once again tied it up in the 6th thanks to Jonathan Anderson's solo homer. They then took the lead for good in the eighth when Juan Gomez drove home Anderson. Seattle added another two runs in the ninth as insurance.
In the other game, the Maui Mashers sent the Shackamaxon Lenape home with an 11-1 drubbing. Maui quickly put three runs on the board in the first inning and never looked back. Juan Villatoro scattered eight hits in seven innings while giving up only one run.
So now, the Monarchs will try to draw even against the Mashers in their transPacific rivalry. Maui won the first two times these teams met in the Cecil Cup, but Seattle won the last time and will now try to make it two in a row and even their rivalry.
Cecil Cup Schedule:
Game 1: Tuesday night
Game 2: Wednesday night
Game 3: Thursday night
Game 4: Saturday night
Game 5: Sunday night
Game 6: Monday night
Game 7: Tuesday night.
Sunday, April 28, 2013
Maui Mashes Shackamaxon; Brooklyn Staves Off Elimination
The Maui Mashers took a 3-1 lead in their playoff series against the Shackamaxon Lenape with an 11-7 victory.
The Brooklyn Wolves managed to win a game against the Seattle Monarchs, defeating them 8-4.
Game 5: Monday night
The Brooklyn Wolves managed to win a game against the Seattle Monarchs, defeating them 8-4.
Game 5: Monday night
Saturday, April 27, 2013
Maui Takes 2-1 Lead, Brooklyn Give Up Lead in 9th To Go Down 3-0
Maui defeated Shackamaxon to take a 2-1 lead in their playoff series. The Mashers took a lead on Richard Bender's second inning homer and never looked back.
At the start of the ninth inning, Brooklyn led Seattle 6-3. Unfortunately, the Wolves' bullpen could not stop the Monarch offense and by the time the top of the ninth was over, Seattle had put five runs on the board. The Monarchs now lead their series 3 games to none.
Game 4: Sunday night.
At the start of the ninth inning, Brooklyn led Seattle 6-3. Unfortunately, the Wolves' bullpen could not stop the Monarch offense and by the time the top of the ninth was over, Seattle had put five runs on the board. The Monarchs now lead their series 3 games to none.
Game 4: Sunday night.
Thursday, April 25, 2013
More League History
I've also started updating my playoff history chart and noticed one interesting data point. In the five playoff series involving Shackamaxon where I have data,* Michael's team is 5-0 in the first game of the series.
Matt should try to get this series over sooner rather than later, as Shackamaxon is 6-0 in Games 5-7 of the series, explaining why they won the last four series they played.
However, Shackamaxon's five previous playoff appearances also took place in the first six years of the league. So the data is a bit ... dated.
* I don't have the game-by-game data for the first season of the league, where Houston beat Stockholm in five games.
Matt should try to get this series over sooner rather than later, as Shackamaxon is 6-0 in Games 5-7 of the series, explaining why they won the last four series they played.
However, Shackamaxon's five previous playoff appearances also took place in the first six years of the league. So the data is a bit ... dated.
* I don't have the game-by-game data for the first season of the league, where Houston beat Stockholm in five games.
Wednesday, April 24, 2013
Maui Takes Game 2, Seattle Defeats Brooklyn
The Maui Mashers took game two of their series with the Shackamaxon Lenape with a 6-4 victory. Lindsay Walker was the star of the show for the Mashers, going 3 for 4 with 3 RBI, a double and a home run and two runs scored.
Brooklyn dropped their second game in a row against the Monarchs in a 7-3 loss. The Monarchs pounded out 13 hits against Wolves pitching, led by Bas Bijkerk who had three of them -- two doubles and a triple.
Upcoming Schedule:
Game 3: Saturday night
Game 4: Sunday night
Game 5: Monday night
Game 6: Tuesday night
Game 7: Wednesday night
The schedule for the Cecil Cup Series will be determined when the first round of the playoffs is over.
Zev
Brooklyn dropped their second game in a row against the Monarchs in a 7-3 loss. The Monarchs pounded out 13 hits against Wolves pitching, led by Bas Bijkerk who had three of them -- two doubles and a triple.
Upcoming Schedule:
Game 3: Saturday night
Game 4: Sunday night
Game 5: Monday night
Game 6: Tuesday night
Game 7: Wednesday night
The schedule for the Cecil Cup Series will be determined when the first round of the playoffs is over.
Zev
2022 League Records
As you all know, I have a giant database where I keep track of SDMB OOTP team and league totals. I've put the data for this year in and, as usual, some records were broken.
This was the highest scoring season in SDMB history, with teams scoring an average of 5.11 runs per game, up from the previous record of 5.03 last season. League OBP and SLG reached new highs too, and the league OPS reached .777. For comparison's sake, the worst offensive era was probably 2007, when teams scored just 4.28 runs per game and put together a combined .693 OPS. I've had the sense that we've collectively found more talented young hitters than pitchers over the last few years, and I guess this bears that out.
Anyway, here are the new team records, with the old marks in parentheses.
Record: Seattle, 127-35 (2011 Seattle, 125-37)
Home record: Seattle, 67-14 (2012 Seattle, 65-16)
Batting average: Seattle, .304 (2013 Seattle, .302)
Home runs: Seattle, 280 (2013 River Cities, 260)
Runs: Seattle, 1045 (6.45/gm) (2013 Seattle, 1016)
Slugging percentage: Seattle, .529 (2021 Seattle, .494)
OPS: Seattle, .898 (2013 River Cities, .860)
Runs allowed: Monck’s Corner, 1072 (6.76/gm) (2021 Atlanta, 1047)
Highest opponents' batting average (tie): Monck’s Corner, .303 (2021 Monck’s Corner, .303)
It wasn't so much that Monck's Corner's pitching was awful (although it wasn't good), but it combined with some very bad defense to break, rather easily, Atlanta's runs allowed mark from last year.
A note though. Compared to league average, neither Seattle's offense nor Monck's Corner's run prevention set records. By that standard, the 2017 Danville pitching and defense remain the worst while the 2011 Seattle offense remains tops.
As always, if you have questions about league history, drop them in the comments and I'll try to answer them.
This was the highest scoring season in SDMB history, with teams scoring an average of 5.11 runs per game, up from the previous record of 5.03 last season. League OBP and SLG reached new highs too, and the league OPS reached .777. For comparison's sake, the worst offensive era was probably 2007, when teams scored just 4.28 runs per game and put together a combined .693 OPS. I've had the sense that we've collectively found more talented young hitters than pitchers over the last few years, and I guess this bears that out.
Anyway, here are the new team records, with the old marks in parentheses.
Record: Seattle, 127-35 (2011 Seattle, 125-37)
Home record: Seattle, 67-14 (2012 Seattle, 65-16)
Batting average: Seattle, .304 (2013 Seattle, .302)
Home runs: Seattle, 280 (2013 River Cities, 260)
Runs: Seattle, 1045 (6.45/gm) (2013 Seattle, 1016)
Slugging percentage: Seattle, .529 (2021 Seattle, .494)
OPS: Seattle, .898 (2013 River Cities, .860)
Runs allowed: Monck’s Corner, 1072 (6.76/gm) (2021 Atlanta, 1047)
Highest opponents' batting average (tie): Monck’s Corner, .303 (2021 Monck’s Corner, .303)
It wasn't so much that Monck's Corner's pitching was awful (although it wasn't good), but it combined with some very bad defense to break, rather easily, Atlanta's runs allowed mark from last year.
A note though. Compared to league average, neither Seattle's offense nor Monck's Corner's run prevention set records. By that standard, the 2017 Danville pitching and defense remain the worst while the 2011 Seattle offense remains tops.
As always, if you have questions about league history, drop them in the comments and I'll try to answer them.
Tuesday, April 23, 2013
Shackamaxon, Seattle Take 1-0 Series Lead
Shackamaxon defeated Maui 8-6. Seattle defeated Brooklyn 5-1.
Game 2 on Wednesday night.
Game 2 on Wednesday night.
Sunday, April 21, 2013
Playoff Season Is Here!!
Welcome to the Postseason!
The 2022 season has come to a close. The postseason will start on Tuesday night with the first games.
The first round of playoffs will feature:
Shackamaxon vs. Maui
Brooklyn vs. Seattle
The final league leaders for 2022 are:
Batting:
Avg: Juan Gomez, Seattle .352
OBP: Steve Keo, Shackamaxon .434
SLG: Jonathan Anderson, Seattle .625
OPS: Anderson, Seattle 1.047
WAR: Lucio Muniz, Seattle 9.1
Hits: Lindsay Walker, Maui 223
Doubles: Anderson, Seattle/Craig Bell, Monck's Corner 52
Triples: Bell, Monck's Corner/Alvin Sherman, Ohio 12
Home Runs: Luis Jeon, NY 51
RBI: Anderson, Seattle 133
Runs: Steve Jones, Seattle 137
Stolen Bases: Muniz, Seattle 49
Walks: Gregorio Marzanno, Barstow 122
Pitchers:
ERA: Enrico Hernandez, Seattle 2.39
Wins: Hernandez, Seattle 23
Saves: Robert Riddick, Seattle 48
IP: Hernandez, Seattle 241.1
Shutouts: Dennis Durand, Brooklyn/Hernandez, Seattle/Ronald Placencia, Seattle 2
H/9IP : Emilio Romero, Barstow 6.57
BB/9IP: Placencia, Seattle 1.21
Strikeouts: Donald Hunnicutt, Hickory 258
K/9IP: Hunnicutt, Hickory 10.38
K/BB: Nicholas Vargas, Brooklyn 5.28
WHIP: Juan Villatoro, Maui 1.01
WAR: Hernandez, Seattle 7.0
Significant Injuries:
Brooklyn's Luis Cedeno fractured his thumb and will miss the playoffs.
Seattle's John Hukill will miss the playoffs after suffering a setback with his ankle injury.
First game of the playoffs will occur on Tuesday evening. All playoff teams should please make sure their roster is down to 25 players.
Zev
The 2022 season has come to a close. The postseason will start on Tuesday night with the first games.
The first round of playoffs will feature:
Shackamaxon vs. Maui
Brooklyn vs. Seattle
The final league leaders for 2022 are:
Batting:
Avg: Juan Gomez, Seattle .352
OBP: Steve Keo, Shackamaxon .434
SLG: Jonathan Anderson, Seattle .625
OPS: Anderson, Seattle 1.047
WAR: Lucio Muniz, Seattle 9.1
Hits: Lindsay Walker, Maui 223
Doubles: Anderson, Seattle/Craig Bell, Monck's Corner 52
Triples: Bell, Monck's Corner/Alvin Sherman, Ohio 12
Home Runs: Luis Jeon, NY 51
RBI: Anderson, Seattle 133
Runs: Steve Jones, Seattle 137
Stolen Bases: Muniz, Seattle 49
Walks: Gregorio Marzanno, Barstow 122
Pitchers:
ERA: Enrico Hernandez, Seattle 2.39
Wins: Hernandez, Seattle 23
Saves: Robert Riddick, Seattle 48
IP: Hernandez, Seattle 241.1
Shutouts: Dennis Durand, Brooklyn/Hernandez, Seattle/Ronald Placencia, Seattle 2
H/9IP : Emilio Romero, Barstow 6.57
BB/9IP: Placencia, Seattle 1.21
Strikeouts: Donald Hunnicutt, Hickory 258
K/9IP: Hunnicutt, Hickory 10.38
K/BB: Nicholas Vargas, Brooklyn 5.28
WHIP: Juan Villatoro, Maui 1.01
WAR: Hernandez, Seattle 7.0
Significant Injuries:
Brooklyn's Luis Cedeno fractured his thumb and will miss the playoffs.
Seattle's John Hukill will miss the playoffs after suffering a setback with his ankle injury.
First game of the playoffs will occur on Tuesday evening. All playoff teams should please make sure their roster is down to 25 players.
Zev
Monday, April 15, 2013
September I Sim Done
Game Date: Sep 15, 2022
Standings:
Divisions: All three divisions have been clinched by Brooklyn, Seattle and Maui
Wild Card: Shackamaxon and Barstow are tied with seven games to play.
Awards and Accomplishments:
Hickory 1B Jesus Flores named Player of the Week (9/5)
Ohio 1B Masahide Ueda named Player of the Week (9/12)
Significant Injuries:
Ohio SP Qing-hua Tso has been lost for the season and will likely miss the 2013 season with a tear in his flexor tendon.
Hickory reliever Patrick Beene is done for the year with a bone spur in his elbow.
Next sim:
Sunday night, to finish up the season.
Zev
Standings:
Divisions: All three divisions have been clinched by Brooklyn, Seattle and Maui
Wild Card: Shackamaxon and Barstow are tied with seven games to play.
Awards and Accomplishments:
Hickory 1B Jesus Flores named Player of the Week (9/5)
Ohio 1B Masahide Ueda named Player of the Week (9/12)
Significant Injuries:
Ohio SP Qing-hua Tso has been lost for the season and will likely miss the 2013 season with a tear in his flexor tendon.
Hickory reliever Patrick Beene is done for the year with a bone spur in his elbow.
Next sim:
Sunday night, to finish up the season.
Zev
Monday, April 8, 2013
August II Sim Done
Game Date: 9/1/2022
Standings:
All three division crowns have been clinched by Brooklyn (Adams), Seattle (Zotti) and Maui (Signorino).
Wild Card: Shackamaxon leads Barstow by four games.
Awards & Accomplishments:
Antelope Valley's Rick Bryant named Player of the Week (8/22)
Matt Foster, of Barstow was named Player of the Week (8/29)
Seattle swept the monthly awards for August with 2B Norman Kuhn named Rookie of the Month, Teddy O'Herlihy named Pitcher of the Month and LF Lucio Muniz named Batter of the Month.
Significant Injuries:
Houston 2B John Lebouf fractured his thumb. He'll be out about four weeks.
New York's Gene Reynolds tore his meniscus. The Gothams will be without him for five weeks.
Retirements:
A number of players have retired this sim. Most were career minor-leaguers, but there were some prominent players as well. These included longtime Houston hurler Coy Herndon, New York reliever Michael Toyoharu, Seattle starter Isidrio Frau, Ohio reliever Darlin Sitton and last, but certainly not least, longtime LA-Shackamaxon SS Ricky Peppers.
Milestones:
Hickory RF Paul Shunk reached 1500 RBI, the fifth player to reach that goal.
Ohio's Fernando Estrada recorded his 2000th strikeout, the 14th player to do so.
Next sim:
Sunday April 14
Standings:
All three division crowns have been clinched by Brooklyn (Adams), Seattle (Zotti) and Maui (Signorino).
Wild Card: Shackamaxon leads Barstow by four games.
Awards & Accomplishments:
Antelope Valley's Rick Bryant named Player of the Week (8/22)
Matt Foster, of Barstow was named Player of the Week (8/29)
Seattle swept the monthly awards for August with 2B Norman Kuhn named Rookie of the Month, Teddy O'Herlihy named Pitcher of the Month and LF Lucio Muniz named Batter of the Month.
Significant Injuries:
Houston 2B John Lebouf fractured his thumb. He'll be out about four weeks.
New York's Gene Reynolds tore his meniscus. The Gothams will be without him for five weeks.
Retirements:
A number of players have retired this sim. Most were career minor-leaguers, but there were some prominent players as well. These included longtime Houston hurler Coy Herndon, New York reliever Michael Toyoharu, Seattle starter Isidrio Frau, Ohio reliever Darlin Sitton and last, but certainly not least, longtime LA-Shackamaxon SS Ricky Peppers.
Milestones:
Hickory RF Paul Shunk reached 1500 RBI, the fifth player to reach that goal.
Ohio's Fernando Estrada recorded his 2000th strikeout, the 14th player to do so.
Next sim:
Sunday April 14
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