Come and Peer With Me Into the Future

The Favorite Toy is a tool devised by noted baseball statitician Bill James to project the final career value of a particular counting stat. It can also be used to calculate the chances of a player achieving a certain statistical milestone.

I thought it would be fun to run some projections on the OOTP league and see what comes out. I ran some projections on five stats (HR, Hits, Wins, Saves and Strikeouts).

So, who do you think has the best shot of hitting 500 homers? Well, you might think that it's Hikory's Gregory Mudge... but it's not (although, to be fair, the fact that he's out for the year does bias things a bit. If I run it again next year after he's hit some homers, his chances may go up again). The player with the best shot is John Hukill, who currently has 243 and is only 27 years old. In fact, Hukill is so good, that he is projected to have a 7% shot of hitting 900 (no, that's not a typo) home runs by the time his career is over.

Hits, on the other hand, seems to be a tougher sell. It seems that almost none of the current active career leaders have a decent shot of getting 3000 hits. The current leader, Michael Fay, is just about done at 2070 hits and age 37. The league's best shot for 3000 hits among the active leaders currently lies with Sean Arant, who has about a 9% shot of achieving that goal.

On to wins... where Chad Nelligan leads the pack with 193. He has about a 47% chance of getting to 250, but no reasonable chance of reaching 300. The best shot in the league rests with Juan Villatoro, who currently has a 47% chance of being the 300 club's charter member.

For saves, you might think that Timothy Vallejo has the best shot of getting 500 saves... but you'd be wrong. That honor goes to Junior Cuomo, who has one save less, but is two years younger. Cuomo has a 43% chance of reaching the 500 save mark. It might even have been higher, had not Mike used him as a starter for half a season. :)

For the last stat, strikeouts, there is no one who has a shot at catching Nolan Ryan (5714), but there is one player who has a chance of coming close. It isn't Frank Osborne (2396 K/ Age 35/12% chance of 3500). It isn't Demarcus Ramirez (2180/35/17% for 3000). It isn't even Placencia (1433/30/26% for 3500) or Villatoro (1077/26/20% for 3500). The answer is a young kid from New York named Joshua Giddings. He only has 781 strikeouts so far, but he is also only 23 years old. He actually has a 21% of reaching 4000 K, an 11% shot of reaching 4500 and a 4% shot of reaching 5000 K.

Here's the data. Have fun browsing.

June II: Who Uploaded?

Cleveland
Hickory
Houston
Los Angeles
Maui
New York
River Cities
Seattle

Next up? The All-Star Game.

Next sim on Wednesday

OOTP X

Anyone else trying it out? I've just started my first league and, so far, the interface seems a little better, but I don't see anything insanely better yet. The pitching ratings model is sure different though.

Los Angeles acquires star catcher

Buoyed by an 8-5 start to the month of June, and the return of starter Alberto Carballo to the rotation, Los Angeles GM Michael Weintraub announced a trade today with the Houston Armadillos.

"We just traded 28-year-old AAA starter James Markovich and a third round pick in 2015 to Houston for catcher Thomas Geter," Weintraub stated.

Geter, a 30-year old Los Angeles native, is hitting .294 with three homeruns and 36 RBIs thus far in 2014. He will take over the volatile backstop role for the four-time Cecil Cup winning franchise which has had 5 players squat behind home plate already this season. While he hit third for the Dillos, Weintraub indicated that Geter would bat lower in the order in Los Angeles's powerful lineup, forming a quality 6-7-8 with 2B James Grimes and 3B Joseph Barnett.

Markovich, originally from the Houston franchise, was 7-4 with a 4.14 ERA in 87 innings this season for AAA Arizona Bay.

Seattle and Hickory Swap Minor Leaguers

In its third trade this sim, Seattle has agreed to send AAA outfielder Bill Elder to Hickory in exchange for AA shortstop Willie Cosner and Hickory's second round pick next year.

"Frank contacted us to talk starting pitching, but he was a little too late. So, I asked him about Maclin's recent injury and one thing led to another," explained Seattle GM/Owner Mack Shultz. "Bill's a promising outfielder, but we're pretty stocked at AAA and the majors in the outfield, especially when Paul Guerrero comes back from injury next year. We don't have much in the infield in the minors, so we thought there was a mutually beneficial deal to be made."

Elder is fighting off the effects of a dislocated finger, so the deal may be delayed depending on a ruling from the league office as to whether an injured player can be traded now or whether the teams will have to wait until the end of the month to consummate the swap.

Seattle Makes Two Deals

The Seattle Monarchs, still reeling from their rash of injuries in the early season and the breakdown in contract negotiations with star first baseman Dong Lutz, made two separate deals.

In the first trade, Seattle sent promising starting pitcher Robert Gibson to Maui in exchange for infielder Paulino Reyes.

In the second deal, Seattle dealt infielder Chet Edwards and fourth and seventh round picks next year to Walla Walla for A-ball first baseman George Hill.

"Well, we've got to start preparing for the future," said Owner/GM Mack Shultz. "We're going to lose Lutz to free agency and there's a number of our other players driving very hard bargains. We've got to be prepared to replace them."

Gibson was thought of by Seattle's front office as the next superstar starting pitcher, but the bounce back year by Joe Macaluso made Gibson expendable. "We wouldn't have dealt Gibson for anything but a premier prospect, but we think Reyes can be that player," enthused Shultz. He could be the next great leadoff hitter in this game." Seattle's fans, who had fallen in love with Gibson, are expected to be outraged by this trade.

In the other deal, Seattle acquired Hill because its scouting director gave the first baseman glowing reviews. "If our scout is right, George could be a very productive major league player when he's finished developing. We need a good first base prospect," explained Shultz. Although Hill is rated the #66 prospect in the game, Seattle's scouting department is much higher on him.

"We may not be done yet," claimed Shultz. "We feel we have some outfield depth due to a number of guys developing in AAA and we may be able to make a move there to further improve our squad."

June I: Who uploaded?

Cleveland
Hickory
Houston
Los Angeles
Maui
New York
River Cities
Seattle

League file was updated, reports are uploading now.

Next sim on Wednesday night.

Zev