Game Date: 1/15/2024
Signings:
Atlanta signed MR Arnold Pough (London) to a 2 yr/$1.3m contract.
Next sim: Thursday night
Tuesday, December 31, 2013
Seattle and Shackamaxon trade
Seattle GM Mack Shultz has had a quiet offseason, with just a trade and a minor league free agent signing under his belt. Rival owner Michael Weintraub of Shackamaxon has been comparably busy, signing several free agents, including superstar John Hukill away from Seattle. Still, the two owners have found the time for their annual offseason trade.
Seattle sends MR Luis Gonzales to Shackamaxon in return for AAA SS Alberto Andres and a 4th round pick in the 2025 draft.
Shultz estimates that this was the 29th trade the two owners have completed in 24 SDMB league seasons. And, surely, this won't be the largest between the two, or the last.
Seattle sends MR Luis Gonzales to Shackamaxon in return for AAA SS Alberto Andres and a 4th round pick in the 2025 draft.
Shultz estimates that this was the 29th trade the two owners have completed in 24 SDMB league seasons. And, surely, this won't be the largest between the two, or the last.
Monday, December 30, 2013
Sim's Done
Game Date: 1/8/2013
Signings:
Atlanta: MR John Kautz (Shackamaxon), 4 yrs/$49.5
Atlanta: All time home run leader, 1B Luis Jeon (New York), 2 yrs/$20m
Hickory: SP Danny Andrews (Atlanta), 1yr/$850k
Seattle: RF Carlos Ruiz (no prev team), minor league contract
Houston: 3B Daniel Burdine (Ohio), 2 yrs/$4.5m
Maui: 2B Ronald Quijada (Antelope Valley), 2 yrs/$19m
Next sim: Tuesday night
Signings:
Atlanta: MR John Kautz (Shackamaxon), 4 yrs/$49.5
Atlanta: All time home run leader, 1B Luis Jeon (New York), 2 yrs/$20m
Hickory: SP Danny Andrews (Atlanta), 1yr/$850k
Seattle: RF Carlos Ruiz (no prev team), minor league contract
Houston: 3B Daniel Burdine (Ohio), 2 yrs/$4.5m
Maui: 2B Ronald Quijada (Antelope Valley), 2 yrs/$19m
Next sim: Tuesday night
Sunday, December 29, 2013
Hall of Fame Standards - Pitchers
The recent retirement of John Okane (and the fact that he missed automatic enshrinement by 0.01 ERA) got me to thinking about how our players stack up as Hall of Famers. I decided to look at all of our retired pitchers (limited to those with 10+ seasons in the majors) and see how they stack up.
As a metric, I used Bill James's Hall of Fame Standards. The formula is as follows:
1 point for every:
I made two small changes to this formula. In our league, no one retired is even close to 200 CG (the record among retired players is 53) and no one has 30 SHO (the record is 27).
As such, I tweaked the last two conditions to:
The test is designed so that the average Hall of Famer should score a 50. Of course that means that there will be legitimate Hall of Famers with scores above this and with scores below this. How far away from 50 we want to stray on the negative side is something we can decide upon in times to come.
So, how did our pitchers do?
There are 72 pitchers who have ten or more seasons in the major leagues. When limited to starting pitchers (since the test really isn't designed to evaluate relievers), that leaves 38 pitchers.
The range of HOFS runs from 72 all the way down to 2. The average HOFS score for the 38 pitchers is 21.2 and the median is 17.
The dozen pitchers with scores over 25 are:
Ramirez and Nelligan are already enshrined. It would seem, based on this test (whose validity we can debate) that Placencia and Okane should also be enshrined.
Now, what about the active pitchers? Well, I took a look that the active starting pitchers with 10 major league seasons. There are nineteen qualifying active pitchers. Of those, Juan Villatoro is on top with a HOFS score of 75. The complete list of starting pitchers on the active list with a score of 25 or better are:
So, where does this leave us? Let's talk standard deviations. The standard deviation for all qualifying pitchers (active and retired) is 18.48 and the median of all qualifying pitchers is 18.
There is only one pitcher who is three standard deviations above the median -- Juan Villatoro who is at 3.08. The rest of the pitchers who are at least one standard deviation above the median are:
Lastly, who is at the bottom? Well, considering the fact that all of these pitchers managed to stay in the league for 10 years, I can't say that any of them are failures. However, limiting ourselves to the retired players (since the active ones can still improve themselves), the bottom pitcher is Pedro Marez, who has a lifetime record of 50-51.
The full data set can be seen here. (Yellow highlights are arefor enshrined playes, blue highlights indicates an active player).
As a metric, I used Bill James's Hall of Fame Standards. The formula is as follows:
1 point for every:
- 10 W over 100, limit 25
- 20 games over .500, limit 10
- .013 WPct over .500, limit 15 (min 500 IP)
- .20 ERA under 4.00, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
- 200K over 1000, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
- .3 BB/9IP under 4.00, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
- .3 H/9IP under 10.00, limit 10 (min 500 IP)
- 1000 IP over 1000, limit 5
- 100 CG over 200, limit 5
- 30 SHO, limit 5
I made two small changes to this formula. In our league, no one retired is even close to 200 CG (the record among retired players is 53) and no one has 30 SHO (the record is 27).
As such, I tweaked the last two conditions to:
- 4 CG over 30, limit 5
- 7 SHO, limit 5
The test is designed so that the average Hall of Famer should score a 50. Of course that means that there will be legitimate Hall of Famers with scores above this and with scores below this. How far away from 50 we want to stray on the negative side is something we can decide upon in times to come.
So, how did our pitchers do?
There are 72 pitchers who have ten or more seasons in the major leagues. When limited to starting pitchers (since the test really isn't designed to evaluate relievers), that leaves 38 pitchers.
The range of HOFS runs from 72 all the way down to 2. The average HOFS score for the 38 pitchers is 21.2 and the median is 17.
The dozen pitchers with scores over 25 are:
- 72 Ronald Placencia
- 67 Demarcus Ramirez
- 54 John Okane
- 53 Chad Nelligan
- 41 Albert Garcia
- 39 Richard Pimental
- 34 Bill Siple
- 34 Thomas Cohen
- 33 Wendell Sorg
- 28 Isaac Diehl
- 27 Sherman Wheeler
- 26 Frank Osborne (who, amazingly, makes the top 12 in a heavily win-weighted list while being 50 games under .500 lifetime)
Ramirez and Nelligan are already enshrined. It would seem, based on this test (whose validity we can debate) that Placencia and Okane should also be enshrined.
Now, what about the active pitchers? Well, I took a look that the active starting pitchers with 10 major league seasons. There are nineteen qualifying active pitchers. Of those, Juan Villatoro is on top with a HOFS score of 75. The complete list of starting pitchers on the active list with a score of 25 or better are:
- 75 Villatoro
- 68 Christopher Hester
- 40 Fernando Estrada
- 34 Joseph Macaluso
- 32 Kyle Fyke
So, where does this leave us? Let's talk standard deviations. The standard deviation for all qualifying pitchers (active and retired) is 18.48 and the median of all qualifying pitchers is 18.
There is only one pitcher who is three standard deviations above the median -- Juan Villatoro who is at 3.08. The rest of the pitchers who are at least one standard deviation above the median are:
- 2.92 Placencia
- 2.70 Hester
- 2.65 Ramirez
- 1.95 Okane
- 1.89 Nelligan
- 1.24 Garcia
- 1.19 Estrada
- 1.14 Pimental
Lastly, who is at the bottom? Well, considering the fact that all of these pitchers managed to stay in the league for 10 years, I can't say that any of them are failures. However, limiting ourselves to the retired players (since the active ones can still improve themselves), the bottom pitcher is Pedro Marez, who has a lifetime record of 50-51.
The full data set can be seen here. (Yellow highlights are arefor enshrined playes, blue highlights indicates an active player).
Sim's Done! Welcome to 2024!
The sim is done and the calendar has turned. The game date is 1/1/2024.
With the passing of another year, we have the annual wave of retirements. Some notable names to hang 'em up for good are:
I believe (and Mack, please correct me if I'm wrong) that Okane was the last active player from our initial 50-round draft in 2002. Based on the automatic enshirnement criteria of the game, Okane misses the Hall of Fame by just a smidgen (the ERA of 3.51 is just outside the criteria 3.50 or less).
Hmmmm.....
Signings:
Shackamaxon signed P Bill Dewall (Brooklyn) to a 2 yr/ $5m contract.
Next sim: Monday night.
With the passing of another year, we have the annual wave of retirements. Some notable names to hang 'em up for good are:
- P Marcus Santoro - 43-55, 5.15
- P Pedro Ramos - 1107G, 310 SV, 3.74 ERA
- P John Okane - 277-170, 3.51, 3419K, 137 ERA+
- P Robert Brown - 472G, 3.89 ERA
I believe (and Mack, please correct me if I'm wrong) that Okane was the last active player from our initial 50-round draft in 2002. Based on the automatic enshirnement criteria of the game, Okane misses the Hall of Fame by just a smidgen (the ERA of 3.51 is just outside the criteria 3.50 or less).
Hmmmm.....
Signings:
Shackamaxon signed P Bill Dewall (Brooklyn) to a 2 yr/ $5m contract.
Next sim: Monday night.
Friday, December 27, 2013
Favorite Toy - Wins
The 2024 season will be the 23rd season of the SDMB OOTP league. Up until now, no pitcher has accumulated 300 victories -- although one is very close and, barring collapse or injury, should break the 300 mark by mid-season.
Using my SQL and Excel skills (by day I'm a database developer), I went through all the active pitchers to see who has a chance to hit major milestones in pitching victories.
200 victories:
Three active pitchers (Juan Villatoro (289 wins), John Okane (277) and Christopher Hester (277)) have already passed the mark.
After that, only two active pitchers have a better than even shot of reaching 200:
The rest of the players with a better than 10% shot
Moving up to 250 victories, there are only four pitchers (aside from the three who have already passed it) that have a better than 0% shot:
Just in case the grouping of Hernandez, Talamantez and O'Herlihy sound familiar, it's because that's 60% of the Monarchs' rotation.
When pushed up to 300 victories the odds look like this:
Of course, we can even project further. What are the odds any of those pitchers will reach 350 victories?
Hernandez has a miniscule shot (2%) at 360.
Villatoro's chances, when extended out, look like this:
Finally, the Favorite Toy tool predicts the career totals for pitchers. For the pitchers we've discussed here, the projected final career totals are:
Of course, it should be kept in mind that the Favorite Toy is a tool that gives great weight to the previous season's totals. So, if any of these players go into a slump (or get injured and miss significant time) or suddenly have great seasons, these numbers will change.
The FULL DATASET (with percentages for win totals starting at 125) can be found by clicking here.
Is there some other form of data analysis you'd like to see done? Let me know and I'll see if it's possible with the data I have.
Zev
Using my SQL and Excel skills (by day I'm a database developer), I went through all the active pitchers to see who has a chance to hit major milestones in pitching victories.
200 victories:
Three active pitchers (Juan Villatoro (289 wins), John Okane (277) and Christopher Hester (277)) have already passed the mark.
After that, only two active pitchers have a better than even shot of reaching 200:
- Enrico Hernandez (29 years, 108 wins) 93%
- Bruno Talamantez (27 y, 110 w) 87%
The rest of the players with a better than 10% shot
- Fernando Estrada (39, 184) 45%
- Teddy O'Herlihy (24, 42) 41%
- Donald Hunnicutt (35, 155) 29%
- Joseph Macaluso (35, 163) 23%
- Jim Walton (25, 33) 17%
- Dennis Durand (36, 144) 15%
Moving up to 250 victories, there are only four pitchers (aside from the three who have already passed it) that have a better than 0% shot:
- Hernandez 29%
- Talamantez 25%
- O'Herlihy 12%
- Walton 2%
Just in case the grouping of Hernandez, Talamantez and O'Herlihy sound familiar, it's because that's 60% of the Monarchs' rotation.
When pushed up to 300 victories the odds look like this:
- Villatoro, 97% (the highest odds in the system)
- Hester, 59%
- Hernandez, 19%
- Talamantez, 15%
- O'Herlihy, 6%
- Okane, 0%
Of course, we can even project further. What are the odds any of those pitchers will reach 350 victories?
- Villatoro, 41%
- Hernandez, 5%
- Talamantez, 1%
Hernandez has a miniscule shot (2%) at 360.
Villatoro's chances, when extended out, look like this:
- 360 victories: 28%
- 370 victories: 19%
- 380 victories: 11%
- 390 victories: 5%
- 400 victories: 0%
Finally, the Favorite Toy tool predicts the career totals for pitchers. For the pitchers we've discussed here, the projected final career totals are:
- Villatoro: 345
- Hester: 302
- Okane: 280
- Hernandez: 240
- Talamentez: 234
- Estrada: 199
- Hunnicutt: 191
- Macaluso: 190
- O'Herlihy 186
- Durand: 180
Of course, it should be kept in mind that the Favorite Toy is a tool that gives great weight to the previous season's totals. So, if any of these players go into a slump (or get injured and miss significant time) or suddenly have great seasons, these numbers will change.
The FULL DATASET (with percentages for win totals starting at 125) can be found by clicking here.
Is there some other form of data analysis you'd like to see done? Let me know and I'll see if it's possible with the data I have.
Zev
Thursday, December 26, 2013
Sim's Done!
Game Date: 12/25/2023
Signings:
Antelope Valley signed SP Sergio Mendoza (Hickory) to a 1 yr/$700k contract.
Atlanta signed P Jose Espinosa (no prev team) to a minor league contract.
Next sim: Saturday night.
Signings:
Antelope Valley signed SP Sergio Mendoza (Hickory) to a 1 yr/$700k contract.
Atlanta signed P Jose Espinosa (no prev team) to a minor league contract.
Next sim: Saturday night.
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