Using my SQL and Excel skills (by day I'm a database developer), I went through all the active pitchers to see who has a chance to hit major milestones in pitching victories.
200 victories:
Three active pitchers (Juan Villatoro (289 wins), John Okane (277) and Christopher Hester (277)) have already passed the mark.
After that, only two active pitchers have a better than even shot of reaching 200:
- Enrico Hernandez (29 years, 108 wins) 93%
- Bruno Talamantez (27 y, 110 w) 87%
The rest of the players with a better than 10% shot
- Fernando Estrada (39, 184) 45%
- Teddy O'Herlihy (24, 42) 41%
- Donald Hunnicutt (35, 155) 29%
- Joseph Macaluso (35, 163) 23%
- Jim Walton (25, 33) 17%
- Dennis Durand (36, 144) 15%
Moving up to 250 victories, there are only four pitchers (aside from the three who have already passed it) that have a better than 0% shot:
- Hernandez 29%
- Talamantez 25%
- O'Herlihy 12%
- Walton 2%
Just in case the grouping of Hernandez, Talamantez and O'Herlihy sound familiar, it's because that's 60% of the Monarchs' rotation.
When pushed up to 300 victories the odds look like this:
- Villatoro, 97% (the highest odds in the system)
- Hester, 59%
- Hernandez, 19%
- Talamantez, 15%
- O'Herlihy, 6%
- Okane, 0%
Of course, we can even project further. What are the odds any of those pitchers will reach 350 victories?
- Villatoro, 41%
- Hernandez, 5%
- Talamantez, 1%
Hernandez has a miniscule shot (2%) at 360.
Villatoro's chances, when extended out, look like this:
- 360 victories: 28%
- 370 victories: 19%
- 380 victories: 11%
- 390 victories: 5%
- 400 victories: 0%
Finally, the Favorite Toy tool predicts the career totals for pitchers. For the pitchers we've discussed here, the projected final career totals are:
- Villatoro: 345
- Hester: 302
- Okane: 280
- Hernandez: 240
- Talamentez: 234
- Estrada: 199
- Hunnicutt: 191
- Macaluso: 190
- O'Herlihy 186
- Durand: 180
Of course, it should be kept in mind that the Favorite Toy is a tool that gives great weight to the previous season's totals. So, if any of these players go into a slump (or get injured and miss significant time) or suddenly have great seasons, these numbers will change.
The FULL DATASET (with percentages for win totals starting at 125) can be found by clicking here.
Is there some other form of data analysis you'd like to see done? Let me know and I'll see if it's possible with the data I have.
Zev
This is really cool, Zev. Bravo.
ReplyDeleteI'm way behind on my usual posts for team records the prior year, greatest players all-time, etc. I'll try to get that knocked out before the offseason actually ends.