Apologies in advance, because I suspect that this might ruffle some feathers. Please understand that I’m not writing this in anger – I’m writing this precisely because I love the game and love the league.
There’s having a strong team, there’s having a dynasty, and then there’s Seattle.
Seattle has been in the finals 11 years in a row, ‘only’ winning 6. Seattle has been in the finals 20 of the last 22 years.
Over the last 14 years, Seattle has averaged 110 wins a season. The lowest win total in any season in that span? 96.
So they’ve been strong in the past. We can ignore that, history is history.
What about present day? Ho-hum, Seattle is on pace for another 120 win season – in line with the pre-season prediction, btw – and their pitching staff has an average ERA almost 2 full runs better than the league average. Seattle’s team batting average is 30 points higher than the league average, OBP is 40 points higher, OPS is almost 100 points higher. Seattle has the top closer, top reliever, top starting pitcher, top RF, top CF, top 2B, and top 3 in a bunch of other positions.
That’s all to say that yeah, Seattle’s really really good.
Here’s the thing: That pitching staff? Also the youngest pitching staff in the league. Overall potential for Seattle’s pitchers and batters is waaaaay ahead of any other team. Oh, and they also have – by far - the top farm system.
At this point Seattle is so strong, they’ve lapped the field – which means they will pretty much never come back to the pack.
Normal teams when they see a window to contend – like London this and last year – need to sacrifice some prospects and such to fill a hole or fill a need.
Well, guess who has a bunch of good players – so many, in fact, that they can trade a solid player here and there, and barely miss him, while constantly getting back yet more high draft picks and prospects to continue filling out the farm system with high-end guys.
Seattle never needs to rebuild - they’re basically always re-loading.
As an owner of a team that is in first place and in reasonable position to be a ‘winning’ team (over .500) for the next couple of years, this isn’t just whining about a strong team. This is about the league as a whole.
My almost-certainly controversial suggestion is that we blow up the league after the season and start over. We have some new owners – and let’s face it, drafting is always fun; we could do a slow draft via email to build our teams and start a brand new league.
As a team that’s moved his chips into the middle for a ‘win now’ mode for the next few years, blowing up a team that’s in its best position to win is painful…but necessary, I believe.
Let me repeat again - I’m not writing this in anger – I’m writing this precisely because I love the game and love the league. I have nothing but mad respect for Seattle; he clearly has put the time in – especially early on, I suspect – and I’ve also found that my relative success in the league seems to be closely correlated to the amount of time I’m able to spend on it. But at this point, I suspect that the gap is simply too great to overcome.
There’s every chance that Seattle might end up building another dynasty again – more power to ‘em. And I'm not quitting the league even if we don’t blow it up, of course – as I said, I love this game and love the league. But I’d like us to have a serious discussion about rebalancing the league. Come on Seattle - wouldn't you find trying to rebuild a dynasty more enjoyable and more of a challenge? :-)
Thank you, Scott for the thoughtful post.
ReplyDeleteBelieve me, I understand your frustration. I've been watching Mack dominate the league for a dozen years (real time!) now. I consider myself lucky that I got one title out of it. :)
As for the suggestion, I don't think that blowing up the league is the solution. I know (just speaking for myself) that I have been putting effort into building my team and getting back to the playoffs, and I don't want to see that all go to waste by blowing it all up and starting over again. I suspect other owners may feel the same way.
In addition, I don't think we should punish Mack for his success. I understand that you didn't mean it that way, but that really would be the end result. Besides, considering his skill in the game (I think his sustained success has been far too consistent to be random chance), we'd just end up in the same situation again within four to five seasons. :)
However, I do have a suggestion that might be of some benefit to the league. I do need to speak with Mack and Michael about it privately first. :)
Of course, I'm open to any suggestions that people may have about making the league better. Please feel free to comment and suggest.
Zev
So, it feels only appropriate that I post here. I'm also going to make a separate post on a related issue, but this is just in response to Scott's suggestion.
ReplyDeleteI've told Zev how I feel about this issue. If he believed a massive shake-up were in the best interests of the league, and the other owners agreed, I would go along with it. But, I wouldn't suggest it and I don't want to do it for some irrational reasons. First, I anthropomorphize the 1’s and 0’s that make up the fictional players in the game. I am irrationally attached to some of "my" players. I want to keep them on my team and see how their careers turn out. Second, I also always find challenges even when my major league team is doing well—planning for the future, trying to find trades that benefit both teams, etc.
That being said, at the end of the day, a successful, thriving league is more important to me than those idiosyncratic interests. So, while I wouldn't vote in favor of blowing up the league, I would go along with it if it were something that Zev wanted and that the other owners wanted.
There have been many times that I've contemplated quitting this league and the other league I play in with Mack, because his teams are so dominant. The "David vs. Goliath" thing only stays interesting for the "Davids" for so long. So far I've remained in both leagues, largely because Mack and I are friends in real life and we enjoy talking about the leagues, and I do still get some enjoyment out of playing. But friendship aside, there clearly is a problem that needs to be addressed. I don't pretend to have an answer but I hope we can find a solution that works for everyone.
ReplyDeleteFirst off, well written Scott. Second off, if you have not read the post by Mack, do it. It has lots of great nuggets in there. I will comment on that one separately.
ReplyDeleteI have brought this issue up in the past, mostly by calling Mack a Poop Head, which has been met by limited fanfare :)
I do this this is a hug issue. Being an owner that has had more than his problems in this league in drafting, developing and keeping his prospects healthy (see Metcalf this season and he has a durable). I have missed on more than my share of players and have suffered a decade of losing records (this is the first year I have been over .500 in this league. I have watched Mack win and win again. And yes it is painful, but I keep plugging away.
I will still hold that the best way to counter MAck is for the rest of us to be smart about our trades. Mack has 3 first round picks next year, one is going to be his so 12th and one will be a possible division winner so 9th - 11th and the third will most likely be in the top 4. The main player in that top 4 pick was traded to his new team and then put on wavers and has since retired all in a few months from being traded from Seattle. This happens way too often and it is the other owners in this league's responsibility to make sure this does not happen. I did some research a few years back on draft picks and the picks in the top 5 are like gold. #1 picks are like platinum. In the last 13 seasons, Seattle has has 25 1st round picks, just shy of 2 per season. Above that the best team in the league has had 4 #1 picks and 3 #2 picks along with a 3rd and 4th pick. This is not including the 3 first round picks next season and the possible top 4 pick that they have. Did they hit on all their picks, nope, but if you have more horses in the race, the bigger chance you have in finishing first. Also, the more top breads, #1 and #2 picks, the much higher chance you have of winning the triple crown. Zev did a post on this recently so it might be worth looking up and reading. So anyways, I think we need to be a bit better at our trades or possibly outlaw trading draft picks (which I know is controversial, but MLB has done it for decades).
OK off my soapbox, but just being smarter is always the answer. I rarely trade with Mack as I know that I am normally going to be screwed as I do not know as much as he does :) I am hoping to sneak into the playoffs and lose to Mack in the first round this year :)
I'm just as frustrated as everyone with the monotony of Mack winning every year. I've changed my tack in the past few seasons, and while my gamble on trading young Harry Wagner (and keeping Esteban Valenzuela instead) has backfired, I'm sticking with my plan.
ReplyDeleteWhether that will work depends on when Brick becomes less competitive, because for Fred, Brian, and myself in the Zotti Division, we not only fight with the other eight teams, but with each other for the Wild Card spot.
I'm kicking around some ideas on how to remedy this (no divisions?) but I don't want to tear the league apart. I'm due to lose 99 games this season, but I believe I am building the next dynasty with all of the moves I'm making.
I agree with Jeremy on this one - us being smarter is the best solution to this. I let my team slip a little at the end of last season due to work/moving/etc, but my game plan of hoarding talent to defeat Mack is still in effect. He has a pretty good farm system, but I'm not far behind!
ReplyDeleteFirst of all, I'm thankful that I can still log in, so thanks for keeping me in the league after my rather radical post. I completely understand the reasoning behind the argument for *not* blowing up the league - heck, I'm attached to some of 'my' players as well. But there does also seem to be some owners that would like to try and make things at least a bit more competitive.
ReplyDeleteI also create spreadsheets and such, based mainly on some of the excel modeling spreadsheets I used in 'real life' (LOL) fantasy baseball leagues. It's definitely helped - as I noted, like just about everything in life there's a pretty clear correlation between how well I do in the league and how much time I've spent on it.
I'm just not sure that we'll ever be able to close the gap as things stand, which is why I posted in the first place. It sounds like a couple of people have some possible ideas/suggestions, so looking forward to hearing them. Personally I think we can try to make Seattle less eager to spend time on his team by forcing him to change his team name to Poop Heads. :-)
It would be a small thing, but I would support a ban on trading draft picks.
ReplyDeleteThe problem with banning the trading of draft picks, Matt, is that they're useful for "evening out" a trade that may be a bit off. Your guy is a fraction better than mine (and we both know it), but not enough to include an actual player? OK, I'll throw in a 4th round pick to make it even.
ReplyDeleteHowever, to not dismiss your entirely, what about a ban on trading first round draft picks? We've seen that the first round pick is the one that generates the most value for a team by far. If teams were forced to keep their first round pick, it would prevent other teams from collecting them like baseball cards.
Zev
I actually like Zev's idea to prohibit the trading of first round picks. And, maybe we should take it one step further and prohibit first round picks from being traded until one year after they were originally drafted, to prevent draft-and-trade scheming.
ReplyDeleteI just setup a test league, and I'd like to make this re-alignment suggestion:
ReplyDelete1. Change back to two leagues, with six teams in each league.
2. Three playoff teams from each league, with the winner of each league getting the #1 seed and a bye in the first round
3. The 2nd and 3rd place teams in each league play in the first round, with the winner of that round advancing to play the 1st place team in the semi-finals.
Doing so will allow two more teams into the postseason, while still reward the top teams in each league. While Seattle will probably dominate the Zotti League, the Adams League will allow three teams to qualify, and have a lot of variance with that.
As far as splitting up three divisions into two leagues, well, that's another topic for another time.
I am for both ideas above. I like banning of trading all future 1st round picks and not allowing the drafted guys to be traded for a year after they are drafted. I also like Michael's re-alignment and playoff idea. I think the first round should be a best of 3 or 5 though.
ReplyDeletei believe not trading number 1 picks is a good idea
ReplyDelete