Seattle's "Secret Sauce" for Success

In response to Scott's post, Zev asked me if I were willing to share some of the ideas that I've used to build the Seattle evil empire. I quickly agreed, and so here's my post on what I have done to be successful and some of the things I've learned playing the game for the last dozen or so years (real-time).

To the extent there is a secret to my success, it’s an extremely scaled down version of what I understand makes people routinely successful in daily fantasy sports and the like. I spent a lot of time, years ago, studying the game and testing things to try to find out what correlated with success. Which of the hitting ratings better correlated with a hitter's OPS? What information for draft eligible players correlated best with their later success? How important are the OSA rankings versus my scout’s rankings? 

When I had far more time than I do now, several versions of the game ago, I created test leagues where I could test various hypotheses and see what worked best. The end result of the work was a series of Excel spreadsheets and formulas that I use as shorthand for player value. Now, I just take reports from the league, copy and past the numbers into my spreadsheets, and let Excel do the work. Earlier today, I counted the total number of inputs into my formula for ranking hitters in the draft and found that 25 separate pieces of information feed into my ultimate “SCORE” formula. That’s the raw number that I use to create my draft boards, although I don’t slavishly follow it.

I still tweak the formulas from time to time, but I don’t have the same free time available now and I wonder if the changes between versions of the game are eroding the fidelity of my research. I do know that there are some blind spots in my formulas, and I try to adjust around those. One example is that my formulas underrate the negative impact of someone who has absolutely no home run power. But those formulas are the essential “secret sauce,” to steal a phrase from Zev.

Based on what I've learned over the years, here is a list of tips. I can’t vouch that these things are actually true, and many of them are not original ideas, but they are principles that I use when making decisions for my OOTP teams.

·         Contact is the most important hitting skill, by far.

·         Avoiding K’s is the least important. I don’t even factor it in when evaluating players or prospects.

·         The current version of the game overvalues speed and gives it too much weight in assigning star ratings.

·         Don’t ignore defense in evaluating major league players. Check their ZR stats. A great hitter can give back half or more of his value if he’s terrible on defense.

·         Elite defense at shortstop and center field can really, really help your team.  

·         Use the minor leagues to teach your top hitting prospects to play as many positions as possible. Once they stop improving their defensive ratings at one position, start teaching them another. You never know when positional flexibility is going to come in handy. It's going to hurt your minor league pitchers' stats, but focus on their FIP instead of their ERA and you should be ok.

·         Check to see if a pitching prospect has at least three different pitches and an endurance rating of at least 30 (or so). If pitching prospects can’t check both those boxes, then they’re probably relievers masquerading as starters. If relievers do check those boxes, then give them a try as a starter.

·         In evaluating pitchers for the future, FIP and WAR are way more important than ERA and wins.

·         All other things being equal, I prefer pitchers with higher endurance, who throw hard, and/or who generate groundballs.

·         The draft is important, but the most important part is to study the draft class on your own and to avoid relying on the computer’s evaluation. I’d rather have the #12 pick in a draft I’ve studied than the #3 pick in a draft where I just let the computer choose. The computer's not terrible, but it's not very good either.

·         In drafting players, I give a little weight, just a little, to the following random ratings: leadership, work ethic, and intelligence. I also give bumps to players who have nicknames and who are rated durable from an injury perspective. (The nickname thing doesn’t hold as true now as it did in prior versions of the game, but better prospects still tend to be more likely to be given nicknames by the game.)

·         Beware of prospects where your scout has a really good rating and the OSA rating is significantly lower. Your scout is probably wrong. I had to learn that lesson repeatedly before it sank in.

·         Try to track when your older stars start declining. Better to move on from someone a year too early than a year too late.

·         Identify areas of surplus on your team and then look for teams that have needs in that area. The best trades occur when you can make the other team better, while getting something useful for yourself.

·         Similarly, look for areas of surplus on other teams. If a team has two good prospects at one position, they’re usually more willing to part with one of them than if they only have one good prospect at that spot.

·         Try to forecast your roster a few years out. It will help with deciding what players to resign, what free agents to pursue, and what trades to make.

·         Don’t be afraid to ask if a player is available and to try to make a deal, even if it’s a long shot. As long as you make reasonable and fair offers, the other owner isn’t likely to get upset even if you don’t complete a trade.

·         Don’t be afraid to spend a lot of money in free agency on the right player, but make sure it’s the right player.

·         Don’t overvalue any one player. Injuries and other crap happen and you can’t bet the farm on one guy.

So, there's the basics of what I've found and what I try to do. If anyone else has tips they would like to share, please do so.