Monday, December 4, 2006

SDMB History / Greatest Pitching Staffs

After a long delay, the SDMB History project returns with a look at the greatest pitching teams of all time. I only have data from 2003-08 (none for 2002). That said, let's get to the best, ranked by the admittedly imperfect ERA+ statistic (ERA compared to league ERA).

1. Seattle 2008. Last year, Seattle posted a 3.04 ERA that was 32% better than its league. Seattle's ERA may have been lower than justified, as they gave up 74 unearned runs, an unusually high 13% of the total. Seattle's RAA+ (runs allowed average compared to the league) was only 29% better, so if you want to move this staff below the next one to the number two slot in the rankings, I won't gripe too much. However, this team has the lowest staff FIP (a fielding independent approximation of ERA) by far at 2.81. The team gave up 83 home runs (second fewest in history by one homer), walked 379 (fewest in history), and struck out 1,318 hitters (second most in history). Albert Garcia, dealt to South Bay this offseason, paced the staff with a 2.13 ERA over 219 2/3 innings. Tim Vallejo won 13 games, saved four, and struck out 115 hitters in 119 1/3 innings to lead the bullpen, which featured three different closers.

2. River Cities 2007. This is the other clear cut contender for the top pitching staff ever. They posted a record low 2.94 ERA, the only ERA in team history lower than 3.00. However, as run scoring was down in the 2007 ZL, it was only 29% better than the league average. The team's RAA was 30% better than the league and it boasted the second-best FIP, at 3.02. The team was considerably helped by its defense, as its 46 unearned runs were the fourth fewest in history, behind 2006 Seattle with 40, 2007 Hickory with 41, and 2005 Brooklyn with 43. It also gave up a record-low 82 home runs and had the fourth most strikeouts in history, with 1,277. The team also had the lowest opponents' batting average ever, at .223. Sherman Wheeler led the team with a 2.17 ERA, a drop of more than three runs from the previous year as he suddenly and unexpectedly blossomed.

3. Stockholm 2005. Stockholm had a 3.34 ERA that was 25% better than league average. This is also the best pitching staff to win a title. It benefited greatly from the durability of the top two pitchers, as Stephen Jurgens and Casey Plunk had ERAs of 2.80 and 3.06, respectively, while both pitching more than 250 innings. Frank Caroll and Karl Hatch both had more than 10 wins and 10 saves each coming out of the pen.

4. Seattle 2005. Seattle's hurlers had a combined 3.29 ERA, 22% better than league average. This team won 112 games but lost in the Cecil Cup to the aforementioned Stockholm squad. The top four starters (Albert Garcia, Hobert Hagerty, Joe Daye, and Scott Mayhew) all had ERAs under 3.00 while winning a combined 70 games.

5-8. Four teams, River Cities 2008, Stockholm 2004, Florida 2006, and Brooklyn 2008 are all tied for fifth on the list with ERAs 19% better than their league average. Notably, three of these four teams won titles, with the sole exception being last year's Brooklyn squad. The Brooklyn team struck out a record 1,395 hitters though, so they've got that going for them, which is nice.

The best franchise mark is clearly South Bay, which has a 3.52 ERA that is 16% better than the Zotti League average. Three of the South Bay title teams are listed above. The other South Bay title team (Florida, 2007) is 24th on the list with a ERA 11% better than league average.

P.S. The other title team, the 2003 Houston squad, had a 4.10 ERA that was 11% better than league average.

P.P.S. The overall ERA for 2003-2008 is 4.09. The Zotti League's ERA is lower at 4.03 while the Adams League ERA is 4.15. Last year's Adams League, paced by the Seattle and Brooklyn squads as well as Mr. Nelligan, had the lowest ERA ever at 3.75. The highest league ERA ever was the 2003 Adams at 4.54.

6 comments:

  1. Interesting work. I'm curious to see the best hitting teams, and how my 2005 team ranks there. I still maintain that they were the best team ever in the league.

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  2. I posted on the best offenses ever back on Monday, August 14. The greatest offense ever relative to its league was last year's River Cities squad (R+ of 123). The most runs ever were scored by the 2004 Houston squad, who tallied 923.

    The 2005 Stockholm team is 11th on the list, sorted by R+ and 10th in total runs.

    If you want to use Pythagorean record as a proxy for greatest team ever, the two best teams were last year's River Cities (.647 in adjusted Pyth%) and Seattle (.644). The 2005 Stockholm team is third at .631.

    By absolute wins, 2005 Stockholm is second with 108, as the 2005 Seattle Monarchs won 112 games before succumbing to the Stockholm syndrome.

    I hate to say it, but I think last year's River Cities squad, especially by the end of the year, was the best team ever. What's worse, they might be even better this year. Ack.

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  3. Heh heh heh.

    I've still got to get that trophy made up.

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  4. Okay, so I have to make up 4 games on last year's "greatest team ever." With my additions, I think I can do that.

    No problem.

    See you in the Cup, Mack!

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  5. After further review, Nate's team is good, but his bench is thinner than last year. Better stay healthy Nate.

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