Friday, December 18, 2009

Sim's Done.

In the Adams League, Seattle has a one game lead over Saskatoon.
In the Zotti League, Cleveland and River Cities are tied.

And the good news: no one was killed this sim! :)

Next sim will be next Wednesday.

Zev

6 comments:

  1. Just wondering Zev...Did you change the injury setting for this sim?

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  2. And are you TRYING to have me tied each time? This is getting into the 'thermodynamic miracle' range of probability.

    As to the injuries setting, Zev can tell if he wants but I think the number didn't change much. If we assume there's an 'injured/noninjured' flag in the game and THEN the severity is determined I think the distribution is remaining about the same.

    Apr 1-15: 12 injuries
    Apr 16-30: 14 injuries
    May 1-15: 15 injuries
    May 16-31: 15 injuries
    Jun 1-15: 13 injuries

    So it seems to be fairly consistent. An average of 13.8 per sim period.

    Hmm. Let's contrast that to the OEL, where the injury settings are a single notch lower...

    Apr 1-15: 5
    Apr 16-30: 8
    May 1-15: 6
    May 16-31: 9
    Jun 1-15: 8
    Jun 16-30: 8
    Jul 1-15: 7
    Jul 16-31: 11
    Aug 1-15: 10
    Aug 16-31: 6

    For an average of 7.8 injuries per two week period.

    So it looks clear to me that, small sample size acknowledged, that the injury setting controls the NUMBER of injuries. That far I'm willing to go. Whether it also controls the SEVERITY of injuries I think we'd need several seasons worth of data to get a determination.

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  3. For kicks I did a breakdown in Excel on injury severity. It's only for this year and only through mid-June as that's the point at which both leagues are at, if you get me.

    I counted the number of injuries and assigned severity points based on these criteria:

    Day-to-Day: 1 point per injury
    Minor (1-14 days): 2 points per injury
    Severe (16-42 days): 3 points per injury
    Major (43+ days): 4 points per injury
    Catastrophic (career ending): 5 points per injury

    While the SDMB does have more injuries, as expected based on the injury settings it appears that there are a higher number of low-lever injuries. Here are the severity numbers:

    SDMB: 2.101449
    OEL: 2.47222

    What it means at this point is a WAY open question. But I thought it was worth the 20 minutes to check the data.

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  4. And another season ending injury in the last sim, this time to young Maui SS Munoz. Yay!

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  5. Well. Not exactly the greatest year for Hickory. What a disappointment so far! While I haven't completely given up on the season, 16 games out of first and 15 out of the wild card on June 16 is a pretty big hole to make up. Thus I will seriously consider any trade offers that come my way. In particular, I am interested in dealing any or all of the following upcoming free agents:

    Harold Beeks (CL, LHP, 0-1, 14 sv, 4.22 ERA, 29K/9BB in 32IP)
    Willie Sewell (RP, RHP, 2-1, 2 sv, 3.10 ERA, 37K/20BB in 49.1IP)
    Richard Shipp (SP, RHP, 3-5, 4.12 ERA, 69K/30BB in 67.2IP)

    However, I will also consider dealing almost any other major league player on my roster; the only pseudo-untouchables are Shunk, Labarre, and Reuter (and even they are only pseudo-).

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  6. I'm not stepping back into the injury debate, as everyone knows where I stand.

    I am going to focus on the field instead. And, there's a whale of a playoff race in the Adams League. The division lead is flipping back and forth between Seattle, Saskatoon, and Maui. Should be a tight race the rest of the way. Brooklyn is lurking close by too and has a lot of talent as well.

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