Let's Try Again for Saturday Night

I'm sorry... life took a hectic turn on Thursday and I didn't get to run the sim. I'll try it again on Saturday night.

Zev

Injuries again.

I wouldn't mind discussing altering the injury frequency level down a peg. Would anyone else be interested?

First Week of Spring Training Done

The first week of Spring Training has been run.

The Seattle/Saskatoon trade has been processed.

I analyzed the schedule and found that it looks good. Each team plays every other team in their league either 32 or 33 times. So, I won't be changing the schedule after all.

Next sim (for the next week of Spring Training) will be on *Thursday* October 29.

Zev

Yes, I finished the draft....

I finally finished the draft very late last night and uploaded the results.

As Mack noted, the draft picks from his last trade were executed but the players weren't. The reason for that was because:

a) I simply forgot about the trade (D'oh!)
b) I ran the draft using Michael's very excellent spreadsheet (THANK YOU MICHAEL!!!)

I'll execute the player's portion of the trade (minus the draft picks, obviously) before the next sim.

I advanced the game to Mar 2, the first day of spring training. I will be running the first week of Spring Training next Wednesday.

Also, please note that the schedules are incorrect. As someone noticed last season, the schedule that the game generates is kind of kooky. I'm going to generate a more balanced schedule (where each team plays each other team roughly the same number of times) and upload it to the game. I am not, however, going to change the pre-season schedule.

Any questions? Fire away.

Zev

OK, I messed that draft up...

... but it's a good thing I made a backup before I started. :) Let's try it again...

The ultimate traded draft pick list

Okay, here's the deal...

Everything in this entry is in this Google Spreadsheet, so if you want to see it in a grid format, look there.

The game's draft order isn't 100% correct. Here's the correct order:

1. Danville (65 wins in 2014)
2. Saskatoon (69 wins)
3. Maui (72 wins)
4. New York (73 wins)
5. Houston (74 wins)
6. Los Angeles (75 wins)
7. Brooklyn (79 wins)
8. Ohio (81 wins as Walla Walla)
9. Hickory (83 wins)
10. River Cities (109 wins, ZL runner-up)
11. Cleveland (83 wins, ZL champion)
12. Seattle (109 wins, Cecil Cup champion)

I noticed that Hickory had traded its first round pick twice while compiling the list yesterday. The first trade was with River Cities, and the second trade was with Seattle. Since Zev is observing shabbot now, I'll let him sort this out when he gets back online, but I believe Mack and Frank are going to re-do the Kerry trade to save Zev and me a headache.

So, considering there's barely one round worth of decent prospects, here's what everyone cares about, the first round order:

1. Seattle
2. Seattle
3. Maui
4. New York
5. Houston
6. Los Angeles
7. Brooklyn
8. Ohio
9. River Cities (pending resolution of whom gets Hickory's pick, but River Cities "got" it first)
10. River Cities
11. Cleveland
12. Danville

Some interesting (or not) trivia:

- New York, Houston, Ohio, and River Cities all have their original picks, having traded none.
- Hickory can focus on sorting out the Kerry deal with Seattle, as they have no picks in the first 4 rounds. Hope you like those half-star MRs, Frank!
- Umm, that's about it. Have fun this weekend, everyone!

Anyone want a catcher?

I have three catchers on my majors roster without any minor league options left, so I'd like to trade one.

Available, in increasing levels of potential trade value are veterans Gerald Odum and Joan Hinkel, plus prospect Gerardo Herrera.

Odum and Hinkel are available for a middling prospect or draft pick, but I'd want something more valuable for Herrera.

Seattle and Saskatoon Swing Super Swap

In a major deal today, Seattle today sent SP Thomas Cohen and two prospects to Saskatoon in exchange for the #2 overall pick in tomorrow's draft and young C Richard Heitz.

In addition to Cohen, who the Amigos ("Amigos" means "friends," for all you non-native speakers out there) expect to front their rotation this season, Saskatoon received top OF prospect Luis Ramon and China's own Guo-ning Qaio in the deal. Seattle also acquired Saskatoon's fifth round pick in the deal.

Acquisition of Saskatoon's first round pick now gives Seattle the two top selections in tomorrow's draft. (Here's hoping its a Steve Emtman/Quentin Coryatt type of day for Seattle.)

Traded draft picks

I wasn't a very good junior commissioner this past season, and didn't keep a list of traded draft picks for the upcoming draft. So, please, help me compile it this weekend.

If you know of any picks you've acquired or traded away, please let me know and I'll add it to the list for Zev.

I'll keep updating this entry throughout the weekend.

Whoa! I noticed while compiling this list that Hickory traded its first round pick twice. Anyone want to sort that out?

Thanks!

Trade draft picks
Round 1: Hickory pick to Seattle (Kerry trade)
Round 1: Danville to Seattle (Jackson trade)
Round 1: Seattle to Danville (Jackson trade)
Round 1: Hickory to River Cities (Beeks trade)
Round 1: Saskatoon to Seattle (Cohen trade)

Round 2: Seattle pick to Los Angeles (Nelligan trade)
Round 2: Los Angeles to Brooklyn (Durand trade)
Round 2: Hickory to Seattle (Elder trade)

Round 3: Cleveland to Los Angeles (Aikin trade)
Round 3: Los Angeles to Houston (Geter trade)
Round 3: Hickory to Los Angeles (Soriano trade)
Round 3: Maui to Walla Walla/Ohio (Armendariz trade)

Round 4: Hickory to Los Angeles (Soriano trade)
Round 4: Seattle to Walla Walla/Ohio (Edwards trade)
Round 4: Brooklyn to Los Angeles (Durand trade)

Round 5: Saskatoon to Seattle (Cohen trade)

Round 6: Los Angeles to Seattle (Nelligan trade)

Round 7: Seattle to Walla Walla (Edwards trade)
Round 7: Brooklyn to Los Angeles (Durand trade)

Round 8: Saskatoon pick to Maui (Odegaard trade)

(See this entry for more information.)

Welcome to the 2015 Draft

Since enough people seem to want to use the in-game draft list feature, we'll give it a go.

I'm sure some owners will need some time to learn how to use it. I still have to learn how to use it from my end. :)

So, we'll schedule the draft for next Wednesday.

As an aside, I know that some owners are frustrated over the the vast disparity in the quality of the scouts. Frank had a suggestion in the last post about using a feeder league to at least give owners some stats to look at for draft choices, which are at least somewhat more objective than scout's ratings (and a measure that would be the same for all owners).

Would you like to have a college feeder league? Discuss.

Zev

Is this the thinnest draft ever?

It is, in my opinion. Every scout I've heard about reports on a severe limit of talent available in this year's draft. Can anyone remember a weaker class?

My scout, for example, shows only a couple of players above even 1 star. And two of those are middle relievers, if I recall correctly.

Oy.

Exchange of Prospects - Pitching for Hitting

Cleveland and Saskatoon exchanged young prospects today as the Amigos picked up some well needed pitching and the Steamers strengthened up their farm system in the OF and IF.

"In order to win you must have pitching, and now we have it," rejoiced Saskatoon manager Eric Lent. He gave us that quote with a big cigar in his mouth as he was heading up to his private suite at the one hotel in Saskatoon with two women on his arms. But alas, we could not tell if these were good looking women as they were wearing about 7 layers to warm up from the frigid winters.

The Amigos picked up young 19 year old closer Gregg Fiala; who became expendable with the recent signing of Junior Cuomo in Cleveland. Fiala had 11 saves last season with an additional 4 in the playoffs all before his 19th birthday. The word on the street is that he could be the next Junior Cuomo before his career is over. Also heading to the Great White North is SP Alfredo Herrero who will feel the cold seeing that he is from Mexico and LF Ariel Gutierrez who is from Venezuela.

In return, the Steamers get some IF depth in 2B Maurice Yee and OF depth with the well known CF Wayne Frederick. Both of these pickups are expected to start the season in AAA, but could become vital parts of the team as the Steamers try to push back to the Cecil Cup. They bring with them $2.5 Million that the Steamers will probably stuff under their bed for a rainy day now that they can carry over up to $25M from season to season.

Both teams are happy with the deal, and both believe that ultimately their organizations are greatly improved. With the draft and Spring Training right around the corner, this deal was finished just in time for these two franchises to set their season strategy, and there could be more deals to come before the season starts.

Next Sim on Wednesday Night -- Discussion About Amateur Draft

The sim was done last night, bringing us to 2/24. The next sim will be until 3/1.

In the past, we've done the draft by email, round-by-round, until we reached the point where the owners consented to let the remainder of the draft go through the computer.

OOTP9 has a draft-list feature that is available. If you want to use this feature this year, please respond and discuss in the comments to this thread. If enough people are on-board for it, we'll use it -- if not, we'll do it as we've always done it.

Zev

UPDATE: Make that Thursday night. It's almost 1AM... much too late to run it now.

Zev

Michael lies, or, there was a sim but not until the 15th

I just ran the sim, but not until the intended date of 2/15. I was only able to sim until 2/10 because Ohio had a player whose DFA time expired, and Ohio didn't have any free room on the 25- and 40-man rosters to stash him. So, David, please correct that ASAP and we'll be able to get on with the offseason.

In other news, I think there was just one major free agent signing, and it was 2B Bill Turek returning home to the Los Angeles franchise on a 4-year deal that could be worth $35 million.

The league file is up. Zev's got the next sim, on Sunday night.

Zev lies, or, yes, there will be a sim before Sunday

Zev has given me the okay to run the sim that was scheduled for last night. I'll run it either this evening (~7pm PDT) or tomorrow morning (~9am PDT).

The following sim will be on Sunday evening by Zev. I'll sim until 2/15 tonight, so I imagine he'll take us to the eve of the amateur draft on Sunday night.

Sorry.. .no sim last night

I ended up getting sick and falling asleep at about 7:30.

I'll run it on Sunday night.

Zev

Offseason surprises

It happens every year. Something weird occurs to your players over the winter months. I know Mack has mentioned that some of his prospects don't look so good now and I'm sure there are others.

So who surprised you? Tell your stories.

My first one is Bruno Talamantez. An 18 year old starting pitcher for me he's listed as the #1 prospect in the game. Great. But my scout thinks he's 2.5 stars now, tops. However, he obviously WORKED over the winter as he is now sporting SIX pitches in his repertoire. Fastball, Sinker, Splitter, Slider, Changeup, and Cutter. By contrast...

Villatoro has four pitches
Cohen has four
Hester has four

Seems excessive.

But what's YOUR surprise so far?

Next Sim -- Thursday Night (that's tonight)

Sim's done, reports are up. Next sim will take us to 2/14.

Oh, and be sure to check out the draft pool for this year.... it's available.

The Strange Tale of Oscar Costillo, OR What is Up With the Scouting in this Game?

So, a question about scouting:

Hickory's scout is 60-year-old Stephen Conway. Relevant to this conversation, Conway is rated 17 in terms of his ability to rate minor leaguers, and 17 in terms of his ability to rate amateur talent. In terms of the former (minor leaguers), that makes his rating fourth in the game (behind Seattle's Cash [19], River Cities' Collins [18], and Walla Walla's Shirai [18]). In terms of rating amateurs, he is tied with three others for the second-best rating in the game (behind only Cash [20]).

My understanding is that this rating should, hypothetically, mean that Conway will rate players more closely to their "actual" value than a league-average scout, or be accurate a higher percentage of the time.

So now we come to second baseman Oscar Costillo, currently on the major league bench. When I took over the franchise a few weeks into the 2013 season, Costillo was at AA Jersey City. Conway had him as a five-star prospect. This included a potential rating of 10 for contact and gap power, a potential rating of 9 for batting eye, and ratings of 6 for home runs and strikeouts.

Having no other way to judge Costillo, and again given that Conway is a highly rated scout, I assumed he would be a useful player at worst. His age-22 season in AA was mediocre (OPS = .693), but he wasn't completely overmatched in 120+ major league at bats during a desperation call-up in September, so he started 2014 at AAA Beulaville. His potential ratings still showed him as a 5-star prospect; his batting eye potential rating increased to 10, and his power potential rating increased to 7.

2014, his age 23 season, was a breakout for Costillo statistically. At AAA, he hit .315/.356/.499, with 11 home runs. His 82 RBI led all of AAA. He produced about 30 runs over replacement, didn't strike out a lot. In 25 major league at bats in September, he hit .360. At the end of the season, and indeed up until last night's sim, he continued to be rated a 5-star prospect with no change to his various potential ratings and steady increases to his actual rating. He sits on the major league roster right now; my plan was to teach him first base during spring training and use him as a caddy for Federico Soriano during the season.

Following last night's sim, all of his ratings have fallen 20 points or more. His potential has dropped from 5-stars to *one*; he is no longer a prospect, at least according to my scouting team. Again, this is following an age-23 season during which he hit extremely well in the high minors.

Hey, nothing's a sure thing, right? Perhaps so, but in this sim OF Dave Quinones (.302/.374/.479 with 24 steals for single A Avon as a 20-year-old), 3B Carlos Pais (admittedly a terrible .727 OPS season at AA Jersey City), and perhaps most frustratingly, OF Mario Lopez (my first round draft pick last year, hit .299 with 11 steals in his first season and at 20 years of age), ALL dropped from five stars to one. All also experienced huge drop-offs in current ability.

Am I missing something? The potential ratings provided by my scout, theoretically in the 75th percentile of all scouts, apparently have literally nothing to do with the player's actual potential. Neither, for that matter, does actual performance. A good counterexample is Bill Spurrier, who is now my starting second baseman. In 2013, Spurrier was rated with half-star potential. He OPSed .705 at AAA at age 26, which is notably worse than Costillo did in his age-23 season. Last year, I promoted Spurrier and he hit very well in the majors; after the most recent sim his star ratings have all been upgraded.

So I guess I don't get the structure of this game. Neither my highly-rated scout nor their comparative statistics would have suggested that Spurrier would be a better prospect than Costillo. My highly-rated scout was the only evidence I could use to pick Mario Lopez, and that after one decent season his rating has dropped from 5-stars to 1 suggests that the scouting reports are essentially useless, doesn't it?

I have noticed that when the other owners approach me regarding trades, they are often interested in players that my own scout considers marginal players, at best. When I made the Bill Dewall deal with New York last year, it was for Pais and Quinones, two five-star talents according to my scout. So clearly, our scouts vary tremendously in their assessments of players.

All of this strongly suggests to me that the various scouting reports are virtually unrelated to a player's actual chances of progressing well, that player development is literally random and thus completely unpredictable. Is there some aspect of this that I am not grasping?