Thursday, January 28, 2016

Discussion: Trading Draft Picks

One of the issues in this league is the lack of competitive balance.  As was recently pointed out, one team has not only outplayed every other team, they are now so far ahead that, under the rules under which we operate, it is hard to imagine him ever falling back to the pack.

Mack has been very gracious about helping other teams, going so far as to tell us what he's done to achieve this success and has, at times, taken positive steps to help other teams out.

Michael and I are open to ideas on how to help restore the competitive balance in the game.  If you have any ideas, please feel free to email them to Michael and myself.  However, I would like to stress that any ideas should focus on improving the other teams and helping them to better compete.  Ideas should NOT focus on ways to punish Mack for his success or handicap his team.

(As an aside, I've been working on generating a data set of game data covering a period of about 100 years (in a sample league I created).  I will be examining the data, looking to try to confirm some of the correlations that Mack mentioned and, perhaps, find others as well.  Once I have the data complete, I will make it available (in it's raw form) to anyone who wants it (so you can do your own analysis, if you wish).  In addition, as I analyze the data and come to conclusions, I will pass those along to everyone as well (as I did in the past with the draft pick analysis).

One of the suggestions that was thrown out was forcing teams to keep their first round draft picks.  As our research showed, the first round draft pick is clearly the most valuable in terms of future value and one of Mack's strategies was to accumulate first round draft picks.  In four of the last five years, Seattle had two or more first round picks.

Forcing teams to keep their first round draft picks would prevent teams from mortgaging the future for short-term gains.  While we can't (and don't want to) prevent a team from ever trading prospects away, we think that by restricting the trading of some draft picks and players, teams will be able to resist the temptation to go for the short-term fix at the expense of the long term.

As such, we're proposing two related rules -- that teams cannot trade their first round draft pick and that players drafted in the first round cannot be traded for a period of one year after the draft.

(Please note that even if this resolution passes, it will note take effect until the 2029 draft.)

What do you think?  Please share your opinions.

Zev

14 comments:

  1. I vote yes to both proposed changes.

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    1. Thanks, Matt... but this isn't a vote yet. This is just for discussion. The vote will be coming along later.

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  2. Matt: This isn't a voting thread, but one for discussion. However, I feel that the Yesses will carry again, perhaps unanimously, when we go to vote.

    That said, I have a few ideas related to the draft, and picks:

    1. Agree with the ban on trading first round picks, after the 2028 draft.

    2. Forbid the trade of players selected in the first round for an entire year, and the forbidding of trading other drafted players (rounds 2 and on) for the rest of the major league season (so that they can be traded in the offseason).

    3. Move the draft to June 1, from March 1. This makes sense for a few reasons:

    a. The College and High School seasons are complete by the end of May each season, and under the current system, those players sit around for 9 months before being drafted. By drafting on June 1, the players can immediately start playing, just weeks after their amateur seasons have ended. This will only help their development, as they don't do anything but age in the current system.

    b. Teams and owners will have a better idea of their needs earlier in the season, rather than at the start of spring training. This will allow more creative trades to happen (especially if first round pick trades are verboten).

    c. It will allow us to populate a possible short-season low-A minor league (to be discussed in a future idea thread).

    d. We would keep the current system of using the previous season's results to set the draft list, so that even if a team tanks the first two months of the season, their current draft standing would not be affected.

    4. Expand the draft to 20 rounds, with the idea that more players in the draft will increase the quality of prospects in the earlier rounds. (Is this true?) Currently, there really are only a handful of 4- and 5-star prospects in the draft, and by the time you get to the bottom of the first round, there's a lot of gambles involved in the choice. So, we should make sure that the first 11 picks are quality prospects, and then there's a drop off for #12. :)



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    1. I have one question about Michael's second point above. I don't understand the logic behind allowing second-round picks (for instance) to be traded, but then banning the trading of players drafted in the second round from June 1 until the major league season ends in October. What's the purpose of that possible rule?

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    2. I suggested it to be closer to the major league rule. Whether it's a good suggestion or not remains to be seen.

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    3. Well, if we want to go closer to the actual ML rules, we could just ban draft pick trading altogether...

      Actually, now that I think about that a bit...

      Zev

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  3. I know this is not a vote yet, but I very much vote for this measure when there is a vote...very much.

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  4. hi this is what i think we should do...the First round picks should not be allowed to be traded and even after the draft should be protected for two years...the second round picks should also not be traded and protected for one year...since the first two rounds seem to be the majority of where the stars come from and also the teams get a better idea of the picks value after a year or two....and i do like the idea of moving the draft back to June first

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  5. I think adopting some rules more like MLB, like Michael suggested, is a good idea. Specifically, not being able to trade 1st round picks for 1 year (aka The Incaviglia Rule) and moving the draft to mid-season. I also like the idea of expanding the minors. I feel like A ball gets a little crowded, and it would be nice to stash some players right out of the draft in a short season league.

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    1. Brian, we agree with you that the minors are a bit too crowded. One of the ideas that Michael and I discussed (and will be mentioned in a later discussion & vote) is roster limitations in the minor leagues.

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  6. I don't know about some of these suggestions by some other owners, but I do like some idea's as well. To me I get that 1st rounders are important and some 2nd rounders as well BUT.... shouldn't that be up to the owner of the team to build his team how he wants?? if say I want to build it like the Yankees of the 90's threw free agency and not care about my farm system then let me worry about the repercussions of having a bad farm. I like expanding of the minors and moving the draft back. I'm feeling like there are too many new rules being brought up and for a league we should pick maybe 1 or 2 per year and see how it plays out.

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    1. John: Yes, of course, it's up to the team's owner to build his team as he wishes, but, as an original owner, I've seen many trades where an inexperienced owner wants a "quick hit" of talent and doesn't value their future assets. This would help prevent that, as noted, Seattle has stockpiled first round picks. This suggestion would be in the spirit of leveling the playing field for all owners.

      If you don't care about your farm team, then wait a year to trade your top picks. With a year of seasoning, they may even be more valuable and you could get a larger haul in return.

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  7. Sorry guys slow at work so I had time on my hands to look at numbers. I looked at Seattle's team to see all his 1st rounders on his MLB team that he had drafted of the 26 on the league page cause I'm at work lol 9 of them he drafted, 3 starters and 6 position players. 5 pitchers he found on minor league contracts before they were good and 2 pitchers on MLB contracts. He has 1 player taken in the 2nd round and 1 taken in the 6th rd and the rest he signed or traded for. But what got me was yes he has 4 1st's in the minors but the rest are mostly 4th rounders to 12th rds and are turning out better then some top draft picks. so I think it not about just trading 1st's but how to find talent on undrafted players and developing late draft picks like Seattle.

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    1. John,

      You're absolutely right. I agree that Mack's success is due far more to his ability to recognize talent rather than his accumulating of first round picks (although the latter does allow him more chances at top talent).

      This measure alone will not make the difference and restore competitive balance all by itself. The biggest factor in that, I think, will be in giving other owners the tools to recognize talent as he does.

      I can't forcibly make team owners spend hours poring over numbers from the league. But I can try to help by providing raw data and statistical analysis (as my time permits) to give other owners a better insight into the correlations between ratings and future success.

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