Here are the numbers by position drafted, which I found very interesting. Keep in mind, this is just VORP and therefore doesn't include defensive contributions by position players.
C: Average of 6.9 VORP/pick. 173 players chosen, 1196.9 total VORP, 217 ML seasons, average of 5.5/season.
1B: Average of 15.7 VORP/pick. 143 players chosen, 2240.6 total VORP, 160 ML seasons, 14.0/season.
2B: Average of 9.4 VORP/pick. 173 players chosen, 1632.5 total VORP, 234 ML seasons, 7.0/season.
3B: Average of 13.5 VORP/pick. 138 players chosen, 1658.1 total VORP, 138 ML seasons, 12.0/season.
SS: Average of 23.4 VORP/pick. 130 players chosen, 3040.1 total VORP, 199 ML seasons, 15.3/season.
LF: Average of 3.1 VORP/pick. 119 players chosen, 364.6 total VORP, 114 ML seasons, 3.2/season.
CF: Average of 12.6 VORP/pick. 156 players chosen, 1958.2 total VORP, 219 ML seasons, 8.9/season.
RF: Average of 23.8 VORP/pick. 139 players chosen, 3306.0 total VORP, 207 ML seasons, 16.0/season.
SP: Average of 31.8 VORP/pick. 338 players chosen, 10751.8 total VORP, 706 ML seasons, 15.2/season.
RP: Average of 9.8 VORP/pick. 377 players chosen, 3684.7 total VORP, 592 ML seasons, 6.2/season.
So, as far as I can tell, you should pick shortstops, third basemen, centerfielders, and rightfielders. Stay away from left fielders and second basemen in particular. And starting pitching is a surprisingly good investment.
I guess that's about what I would have expected in real baseball, but I found it interesting nonetheless.
I just realized that my numbers for SP and RP are all high. For a long time (2003-13), the draft logs generated by the game listed all pitchers just as "P"; not differentiating between starters and relievers. Where I've had to look at the players for some reason, I tried to put them into SP or RP categories. But there's a bunch of guys (more than 200) who never made it to the majors or made a prospect list or I never otherwise noticed. Those pitchers have never been classified. So, there are actually more SPs and RPs who have been picked than my numbers above show.
ReplyDeleteSo, on balance, the average per pick for the SP and RP is too high by about 25-30%. Adjust your plans accordingly. :)