As part of another of my pet historical projects (this time, going back and looking at how players have performed compared to the amateur draft), I am in the process of calcuating VORP historically for players for the years before 2013 when the game started doing it.
Anyway, I've finished all of the players listed as active in the most recent archive for 2018, and thought I would share some of the findings.
Note: Because of the nature of my project, it only covers players taken in the amateur draft since the 2003 season. Players picked as part of the inaugural draft aren't in my database.
Most Valuable Active Players, by career VORP.
1. OF Brian Frison, 816.9 over 11 years
2. SS John Hukill, 747.9 over 11 years
3. 1B Dong Lutz, 730.5 over 13 years
4. SP Ronald Placencia, 696.3 over 10 years
5. SS Ricky Peppers, 646.3 over 12 years
Of these, four of the five were selected in the first round. New York picked Placenica in the second round in 2004 with the 21st pick.
Here would be the All-Star team of active players, by career VORP and by position at the time of drafting:
C: Herman Gossard: 408.9/11 years (2nd is Beau Manning: 394.9/12 years)
1B: Dong Lutz: 730.5/13 years (Luis Jeon: 520.6/14 years)
2B: Bill Turek: 337.9/12 years (Duane Gerhardt: 253.2/8 years)
3B: Eugene Alustiza: 420.2/10 years (John Grondin: 337.2/6 years)
SS: John Hukill: 747.9/11 years (Ricky Peppers: 646.3/12 years)
LF: Armando Cedeno: 315.6/10 years (Sherman Evanoff, 129.7/5 years)
CF: Miguel Cuesta: 455.8/13 years (Anton Suarez: 262.5/10 years)
RF: Brian Frison: 816.9/11 years (Paul Shunk: 588.9/12 years)
SP: Ronald Placencia: 696.3/10 years (Christopher Hester: 630.4/11 years)
RP: Junior Cuomo: 335.9/12 years (Timothy Vallejo: 335.5/12 years
There's lots about this I find interesting, but I can't get over how close Cuomo and Vallejo are in career value. Even though he's not a Monarch any more, I'm still rooting for Vallejo to finish ahead of Cuomo, although I recognize that's pretty unlikely.
And, among active players, SP Jim Edgar has the lowest career VORP at -63.1 over 6 years.
Any questions about the process of determining VORP before 2013 or about anyone active and their numbers or position ranking can be dropped in the comments and I'll try to answer them.
Where did you find by-position statistics in order to do the comparisons?
ReplyDeleteI used a simplifed VORP formula comparing players to league averages. For hitters, I used .75 as replacement value for catchers, .85 as replacement value for first basemen and .80 for all other positions.
ReplyDeleteThe numbers came out roughly correct when I compared 2003-12 VORP numbers to 2013-2018, considering that scoring league-wide went up dramatically when we went to version 9 in 2013. I looked at players whose career spanned that bridge and the VORPs seemed on target with the different league environment.
Before 2013, runs per game were fairly consistent around 4.40. In 2013, the figure jumped to 5.01. For 2014-18, the league average was then between 4.74 and 4.84 every year.
Interesting stuff, Mack. Thanks for doing this.
ReplyDeleteOne note. Both of the 2B listed retired this offseason.
Retired players are next, but it could take quite a while to get through them. :)
ReplyDelete